So what’s an owner to think about Donald Brown or, more importantly, his future?
In short, few would describe his two-year slate of production as anything more than disappointing. After all, in backing up the injury prone Joseph Addai, Brown has had plenty of opportunities to assume the starting position. Instead, Brown has done his best Addai imitation by struggling with injuries himself and being less than advertised with the carries he has had. So much so that the Colts now find themselves between a rock and a hard place with what to do with Addai, a 2011 free agent.
Word is that the Colts would like to bring back Addai in 2011, primarily due to lack of trust they have in Brown. While Brown is a highly regarded individual with a great work ethic and mental capacity, he has yet to prove that he can stay healthy over a 16 game season. More dynamic than Addai, Brown does have the ability to break the long run and is capable as a receiver as well. Where Brown is lacking is in his blocking and his ability to move the pile in short yardage situations, evidenced by one Javarris James vulching six touchdowns in 2010 in goal line situations.
So with 207 career carries and a pedestrian 3.8 ypc. average, where to from here for the young (24) back?
With all due respect to Brown, 2010 was the year to prove that he could take over as the lead back. Peyton Manning still doesn’t trust Brown in a blitz pick-up role and he simply didn’t show enough during the year for the Colts to move on from Addai. Now the Colts are forced into the situation of needing to resign Addai (which they should accomplish) to give Brown another year of development. 2011 is the new 2010 for Brown.
Blitz pick-up duty can take young backs 2-3 years to understand and perfect, much like route running with respect to young receivers. Without dynamic play-making ability, teams cannot risk under-performance in this area, even more-so should the quarterback being protected be named Peyton Manning. For Brown, reps. mean experience and I fully expect that blocking will not be a significant hurdle to be cleared. The ability to stay healthy, on the other hand, will dictate Brown’s future success and is far more concerning.
Should Brown rid himself of nagging hamstring and ankle injuries, all logic suggests that he will again be given the chance to see significant carries in 2011. In his third year, Brown will certainly now understand the need to adopt more of a downhill running style that will find him in the secondary more quickly than his line-dancing style that has, instead, found him on the bench in short yardage situations. With two years left on his contract, and still young, there is little way the Colts have made any determination beyond 2011 as has been suggested by some beat-writers; Brown embodies the work ethic and the character that define the Colts organization. Beyond that, however, Brown must show that he can stay on the field and be trusted by those around him – that will only be accomplished through the avoidance of another injury.
The Colts drafted Delone Carter out of Syracuse in the fourth round of the 2011 NFL Draft, serving Brown at least some level of notice. I’ve watched Carter enough to know that he is NOT an every-down back, won’t be used in the passing game and isn’t dynamic enough to be a lead back, at least not with what has been shown thus far. In all likelihood, Carter was drafted to secure short yardage situational duty. Some have suggested that Delone Carter is likely to be Addai’s back-up or even, potentially, the back receiving the lion’s share of carries in 2011. I simply don’t see this as a possibility in 2011 and this is much more an indictment of Brown than confidence in Carter.
In our most recent dynasty mock draft within our Dynasty Essentials Guide, Brown was selected in the 7th round and his current redraft ADP rests in the 11th round. Being only 24, Brown has plenty of upside and opportunity to provide a good risk-reward play to dynasty drafters, especially those with well-regarded starters already assembled. The 11th round ADP ranking, in my mind, makes for a superior risk-reward play for redraft leagues, as surprise players that emerge mid-season can put a team over the top in a given year. Brown represents this type of possibility in 2011 and should be drafted prior to the 10th round.
In trade, there is enough negativity surrounding Brown that he makes for a great buy-low target, or as a throw-in player in a larger trade. If you are an owner of Brown, you’re holding an asset that simply won’t have enough value in trade to move at this point. Rather than sell-low, you are much better off holding onto Brown in hopes that he can stay healthy, gain trust of the coaching staff and that he can capitalize on the carries that he is likely to get in 2011.
Brown has a style that should have translated to the NFL by now. It’s arguable that constant injury has or has not ultimately determined Brown’s current lack of production or whether Brown is simply better served as a role player and not a fantasy producer. In either case, Brown is still young enough to have a noteworthy career, but it must start in 2011.
I love players with a good work ethic and character. Combine that with the skill set needed to be successful and you have many of the ingredients for a productive fantasy player. For myself, Brown is a worthy bet to eventually be a productive player in the NFL and worthy of the risk. I would buy-low on Brown but would not give up significant existing fantasy production to do so. If you have owners willing to sell-low on Brown, now is the time to act. In redraft leagues, Brown makes a great risk-reward play prior to the 10th round and is a worthy selection in new dynasty leagues once your starting lineup has been secured.
The NFL road is paved by the young stars of the future and littered with those that had potential but never panned out. 2011 is likely the year to find where on that road where Donald Brown belongs. Where do you think that is?
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What kind of pick do you think could be had or offered for Brown at this point?
If you are trading him away, you’d be getting very little in return. His upside is the only thing of value now and many are selling out on him now. His best value is as a buy-low if you have an owner that has him rostered and is deep at RB. Feel around but don’t make it too obvious that you are trying to get him.
I’d trade away a late first in many cases for him still I believe. He just turned 24 and and he’s a good kid. His injury troubles have been concerning but he’s worth a shot.
Great article on Brown. I own both Addai and Brown and have been wondering about their situation for the season. I will hang onto both this year.
I own him in one of my leagues and he has been disappointing but I see zero reason to sell on him now … just wouldn’t get anything in return in most cases.
Perhaps the one player on my roster for which I most needed exactly this kind of analysis. Brown’s on the bubble for me once keepers have to be declared — along with the likes of Rashad Jennings, Bernard Scott and Ben Tate. My gut says Brown’s a no-brainer keeper (and with two or three spots available, I’m pretty sure that’ll be the case), but it’s been quite a while since there’s been anything positive to read about him.
Ever since the first significant injury of his rookie year, we’ve only rarely seen the kind of explosiveness he had routinely displayed to that point. I don’t recall the body part involved (shoulder?), but it came at the end of a long second-quarter run in a Week 7 game (the sixth of the season for the Colts). He left for the day after two carries for 58 yards. To that point, he had 49 touches on the season, 13 of which went for 10-or-more yards, five for more than 20.
Only one of his 36 touches the remainder of that season exceeded 10 yards. In 2010, 149 touches produced 16 plays of 10-plus, and six for 20-plus.
In digging up those numbers, I also noticed that his YPC really took a hit when he was being used in a closer role. Sounds like Carter could be a prime candidate for those carries.
I got Brown late in a startup draft, so I don’t feel like I have a ton invested in him. Still, it’s obvious that expectations haven’t been met. I’m as anxious as the Colts (maybe more so) to see the guy we saw during those first five-and-a-half games of his career.
Injuries can be a tricky thing, especially if they get in a young player’s head. He does tend to dance too much but that can be remedies and he has shown a nice running dynamic. Best of all, he’s in an offense where he wouldn’t be the focus, so he should have opportunities to produce if given another chance. Going into his third year, he’s not going to get a lot of other chances.
I flipped Brown and Dustin Keller for Vernon Davis before this years NFL draft. Other owner had Addai. I think I win that deal easy. Brown had his chance IMO. Carter muddy’s the situation further. If you have him his lottery upside is worth keeping compared to what you’ll get in exchange. That’s about it.
I think you want Brown on your team. He’s a first round talent and was drafted to replace Addai. Addai did step up his game in response, and Brown hasn’t given a reason to put him on the field.
But Indy drafted another RB with a free agent on their hands. This gives Indy a lot of leverage to pressure Addai into a lower offer. Beyond that, Addai would likely move to a team that doesn’t look like a playoff squad.
If Indy plays hardball with Addai, he could leave. He’d have value with some other teams. If that situation occurs, Brown’s value skyrockets. He’s a “featured” back in a high-powered offense.
I think he’s a buy/hold until Addai is signed. If Addai signs with Indy, take what you can get for him. If Addai signs elsewhere, then sell his upside, you’ll have a guy with real trade value then.
You would trade a late 1st for Donald Brown still? WOW. I guess your in the business of just giving picks away for the sake of it. He’s no better then a 3rd rd rookie pick at this point, anything more and your paying for nothing. What has he done to show he has so much potential left? What has he shown that lets us know he’s going to have his role increased?
I’d take Bilal Powell over him in a heartbeat who is a 2nd rd pick. In fact if I owned him I’d take an early 4th this year and next.
Can anybody remember the last time Donald Brown was a starter in your fantasy line-up? Ever? It’s not like RB is a position with a big learning curve, and the offense he’s in certainly gives him opportunities for production.
If that’s worth a 1st rder, I must not know anything about value right now. It’s one thing to still hold onto a player, but sounds like your hopes are a bit too high.
I’m pretty sure you spent more time writing this article then Donald Brown will spend as a starting RB this year. He’ll just be sitting on somebodies bench for the next few years while someone “hopes” he ends up something.
If carter has good chemistry with peyton, he will be the perfect back for the colts.
Nobody mentioned that the Colts drafted two big o-linemen in the first two rounds which will help the running game. Brown never got much space and that’s why the Colts knew they had to beef up the run block. Brown showed his speed in the Jac game when he got some room to run,im holding on to Brown but it is his make or brake year but that usually motives players to pick up their game IE:MacFadden,D-Will,Charles,Benson etc. and takes time for their bodies to turn into grown men. Remember when Mendy got his shoulder smashed and everyone was saying he was a bust??? Now he is one of the top dynasty backs,the talent will show as long as the Colts can block!!!