The Colts convinced Kerry Collins to come out of retirement and signed him to a deal this morning. While terms have yet to be disclosed, most believe it’s a one year deal for around $3 million. The move is the latest indication that Peyton Manning may indeed not be ready for the season opener. The signing of Collins creates a ripple effect in dynasty leagues and tweaks the values of several players. Let’s analyze in the latest edition of “Instant Analysis.”
Kerry Collins, QB IND
There are two ways to look at this.
First, you could be a pessimist and assume that Manning is in serious trouble. This signing could make it seem likely he’s going to miss at least the first week or two of the season, perhaps even more. Many beat writers are already saying the Colts brass doesn’t believe he can be ready for the opener. After all, why would Collins sign on to be a backup?
Second, you could be an optimist and look at the putrid Colts backup situation. Collins has a relationship with Jim Caldwell from their time at Penn State, so he could simply be doing the Colts a favor and earning a nice little paycheck for the right to hold the clipboard this year while the Colts try to find their long term backup next year – it’s obvious that Dan Orlovsky and Curtis Painter aren’t viable options there.
If I own Manning, I’d consider picking up Collins as insurance. If I don’t, I’m not really running to the waiver wire to pick him up. The Colts high powered offense is the result of having Manning more than anything else. Even if Collins takes the helm for a long period of time, it’s hard to see him as more than a fantasy backup.
Peyton Manning, QB IND
It’s time to start getting a little concerned, but let’s not start jumping off bridges here.
While some owners may think this is the beginning of the end for Peyton, it’s likely just a bump in the road. Simply put, his recovery isn’t going as planned. The Colts are too smart to just throw their franchise out there against Mario Williams and JJ Watt and hope for the best.
It’s likely that Collins is there as insurance and nothing else. Manning may miss a game or two, but it’s hard to believe at this point that his season is in jeopardy.
If I have Manning in a dynasty league, I simply hold on to him and hope for the best – this is no time to start selling him for pennies on the dollar – the key word here is concern, not panic.
Curtis Painter, QB IND
Painter had an opportunity to cement himself a long term role as the Colts backup, but he’s failed miserably the past two years. He shouldn’t be on any roster after the signing of Collins – it’s a clear indication the Colts have given up on him.
Dan Orlovsky, QB IND
He’ll be battling Painter for the third quarterback spot, but nothing more. He’s also a player who belongs on the fantasy waiver wire.
Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon and the rest of the Colts offense
If Manning is actually replaced by Collins in the short term, every player on the Colts offense is going to lose value during his tenure. Collins is better than what most give him credit for, but he’s no Peyton Manning. You could easily look at this and say the running backs will be utilized more, but defenses will also be much less afraid of stacking the box as well – that likely neutralizes that concept to an extent.
Brett Favre, QB FA
Please let it be over.
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I actually think this increases the short term (e.g. redraft) value of Collie/Wayne/Garcon. It eliminates a question mark. Now the worst case is Collins who isn’t bad. That’s a lot better than the prospect of a couple of weeks of Painter.
You’re a real “glass is half-full” guy, aren’t you? But you’re probably right in that their prospects would be MUCH worse with Painter under center. But I suspect that Painter may not make this roster now.
I think this is much more about the horrible play of the backups in Indy than Manning not starting the season. Manning took over the starting job at Tennesee in 1994 and hasn’t missed a game since. I think the Collins signing shows that the Indy front office has a real concern that Manning could miss some during the season if his neck is bothering him, not that he will miss game 1.