Dynasty Stock Market – End of 2010 Edition

This was, by all accounts, a very odd year.  Peyton Hillis, Arian Foster, Darren McFadden, Brandon Lloyd and Michael Vick came from literally nowhere to be cornerstones on competing fantasy teams while such names as Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, Miles Austin and even Chris Johnson failed to really live up to expectations.  While surprises emerge every year, I can’t recall a year in the recent past quite like 2010.

But if you take away anything from 2010, let it be this:  You cannot afford to simply rest on your laurels when it comes to roster management, regardless of how good you feel your team is.  Any player, during any year, has the potential to make a name for himself and rise to the challenge of playing in the NFL.  Whether it is a 22 year old rookie or a 30 year old wide receiver, don’t discount or dismiss lightly, the emergence of a player that the light has possibly come on for.  As we’ve seen this year, a timely addition of an emerging star, or even a one year wonder, can be the difference between a championship run and a disappointing finish.

Let’s get a bit dirty and start digging up those names that you should be adding to those last few roster spots, or cutting bait on to make room for a player with more future potential.

Quarterbacks

The quarterbacks of 2010 were largely a stable group.  As mentioned previously, Michael Vick came from nowhere to likely top the position in your system.  This likely spelled doom for those coaches that were counting on Kevin Kolb as their primary signal caller.   Beyond that, the usual suspects graced the top 8 with Brady, Rivers, Brees, Manning and Rodgers all turning in solid years.

Other such names as Ryan, Flacco and Josh Freeman gave their coaches enough to smile about when considering the future.  Owners of Sanchez, Orton, Palmer and McNabb should be feverishly performing their due diligence on college prospects Andrew Luck, Ryan Mallett and Cam Newton.

Ryan Fitzpatrick - Rising. Do you realize that if Fitzpatrick starts the first two games of the year and scores a total of 30 points, that equates to an overall ranking of about 7th?  That beard alone is worth rostering.  He’s obviously the starter for Buffalo when training camp opens and maybe the Bills can actually add offensive line help instead of the skill positions (CJ Spiller underwhelmed in a big way).  You don’t want Fitzpatrick as your QB1, but you could do much worse.  He’ll be 28 when the 2011 season opens up and you have to believe Buffalo is drinking the punch.

Sam Bradford – Rising. Color me impressed.  I didn’t think it would be possible for Bradford to perform as he did in 2010.  That is not to say that he is a QB1 in fantasy, but owners must be pleased with his performance.  Add a few more play-makers along with another year of experience and Bradford is a legitimate QB1 in a couple of years.  Until then, Bradford is a low end QB2 with significant upside.

Tim Tebow – Rising. Let’s not go overboard here but the Tebow train is leaving the station.  Tebow’s stock is rising as he will finish the year as the starter in Denver.  This doesn’t bode will for Orton and Tebow is just too dynamic to have on the bench.  No more than a high end QB3 entering 2011, you’ll want to have two solid starters ahead of him on your roster until he develops.  But he’s dynamic enough to generate excitement from that QB3 position.

Colt McCoy – Rising. Cleveland isn’t close to winning a championship.  I’d like to see McCoy start for 2011 and be given a year to see if he can stay healthy and develop himself and the team around him.  I’m not confident that Mike Holmgren will allow for that to happen but the Cleveland fans love McCoy and for good reason.  With little to no expectations, McCoy came in and looked surprisingly poised and capable.  He gets a QB3 tag at best but he’s worthy of a roster spot.

John Skelton – Rising. I like Skelton, I always have.  Even in my primary league I was planning on how/when to add him.  He stands tall in the pocket, has a quiet confidence and throws a very nice ball.  We haven’t seen yet what he’s capable of doing and it’s likely that we won’t in 2010.  Much like Jimmy Clausen, Skelton is in a bad position in that Arizona can’t afford to go into 2011 with any of the current QBs as their starter, but if they do, look for Skelton to get that tag.  He’s a QB4 in fantasy but with QB3 value in my mind.

Joe Webb – Rising. Joe Webb should enter 2011 on equal footing with Tarvaris Jackson for the starting job.  It’s very likely, finally, that Favre is done in the NFL which means that the Vikings must settle on a starter at some point.  Joe Webb has looked rather capable under center and adds a Michael Vick element to the offense.  Jackson is no slouch either but it sure seems that the Vikings like what Webb offers.  He’s worth an immediate addition going into the off-season.

Jimmy Clausen – Falling. Clausen is in a tough situation.  Carolina is close to locking up the first pick in the draft and their offense is horrible.  Without the need for an elite runner, the Panthers have to consider Stanford’s Andrew Luck with that first pick.  Without a quality mentor on board, look for Luck to start in 2011.  It is possible that the Panthers bring in a veteran signal caller to mentor Clausen and/or Luck, but I would expect that Clausen is traded ahead of the Luck selection, perhaps for a veteran QB.   Clausen isn’t talented enough to take an offense like the Panther’s on his back yet and the Carolina brass need a face for the franchise.  It’s not Clausen.

Carson Palmer – Falling. Palmer is a shell of his former self and it’s obvious that he needs a change of scenery.  Only 31, Palmer still has the skills in my estimation to be a viable starting QB but Cincinnati ownership is seemingly a lost cause and Marvin Lewis, OchoCinco and T.O. are all likely to be gone in 2011.  Chad still has a year on his contract but changes are coming.  Palmer is signed through 2014 but something has to give.

Brett Favre – Falling.  In fact, he’s done.  I do believe it this time and there is no reason to roster him during the off-season.  He did seem to have that youthful enthusiasm before his concussion in week 15, but it’s obvious that it’s time for him to leave the NFL game to younger players.  He’ll be very successful in whatever he chooses to do beyond playing the game and I hope he takes a year or two off to spend with his family.

Donovan McNabb – Falling. What a debacle and you have to feel badly for him.  It’s obvious that the Redskins signed McNabb to that ridiculous deal just to shut down the media frenzy.  In what turned out to be only a one year deal, McNabb has now been benched for Rex Grossman.  He is certain to be traded in 2011 and has enough in the tank to be a quality starter for another 2-3 years.  Look at Arizona as a likely landing spot.  McNabb is no longer a QB1 on any fantasy team but he is still a viable QB2 in the right situation.

Vince Young – Falling. Vince’s days have likely come to an end and with the word on the street being that it has to come down to Fisher or Young after the season;  I expect Fisher to remain.  VY has already lost a majority of his team and the Titan coach is an institution in Tennessee.  That said, coming off another disappointing season and it’s not out of the question that Fisher may be on the outside looking in or may be thinking it’s time to move on himself.  As for VY, he gets the dreaded QB3 tag until further notice.

Chad Henne – Falling. I personally never understood the Henne-hype.  And it appears as though the experiment has ended in Miami.  Henne will likely stick as Miami’s QB2, but he is nearly droppable in fantasy.  Until his future is determined, he must still be rostered but I think Thigpen has more upside.

Matt Hasselbeck – Falling. Not much to say here.  The Hawks need to move on from Hasselbeck and it’s painfully obvious.  He’s borderline droppable but until his future plays out, he gets a QB3 tag.

Free to Drop:  Alex Smith, Troy Smith, Derek Anderson, Bruce Gradkowski

Running Backs

An odd year.  What would have been the Vegas odds at the beginning of the season that three of the top five backs at season’s end would be Arian Foster, Peyton Hillis and Darren McFadden?  And what if I also told you that Chris Johnson, MJD and Ray Rice wouldn’t be in the top five either?  I wouldn’t have taken either bet.

As it turns out, after Arian Foster’s stellar season, those other backs rounding out the top 10 were relatively tightly grouped.  In a league that believes that RBs do not need to be highly drafted in order to find production, this certainly seems to have played out yet again.  The running back position is still an essential position to invest in as the guaranteed touches are far too valuable to do otherwise.  But the transition to multi-back backfields continues to be the trend.  To our benefit as fantasy coaches, it does seem that the 2-2-1 backfield transition is not as prevalent as it once was.  Recall that the 2-2-1 system saw three backs being rotated with the primary back getting two series, the second back getting two series and the last back getting a single series – this employed to keep the backs rested and, hopefully, more effective.

With 2011 looking to be a down year for rookie RBs outside of Mark Ingram, young fringe RB value should rise.

Peyton Hillis – Rising. What to make of Mr. Hillis.  The DLF community seems to be all over the board when valuing Hillis for 2011 and beyond.  I believe most will overvalue and overdraft Hillis next year.  Taking nothing away from his achievements in 2010, there is just too much mystery surrounding the Cleveland offense, backfield rotation and future plans.  Hillis, regardless of his performance this year, is still a very one-dimensional back.  But that one dimension is very good.  Hillis’s value is on the rise for sure but I believe he’s more than fully valued already.

Mike Goodson – Rising. I’ve been a Goodson fan for a long time.  If not for his injury history, Goodson would have been a highly drafted back in the NFL.  It’s easy to see why, when healthy, Goodson could have a very nice future in the NFL.  But the injury tag is not something that can be easily dismissed and I question whether he could ever be the lead back in a system.  With DeAngelo Williams likely to be franchised and subsequently traded, Goodson should find himself as a high-upside second back in the Panther’s offense.  Is Carolina offense an oxymoron?  Goodson is dynamic, has good hands out of the backfield and has long speed.  Similar to the aforementioned Williams, Goodson doesn’t need 20 touches to be a productive fantasy back.

Danny Woodhead – Rising. Woodhead’s value took a huge leap when he was signed by the Patriots.  The diminutive runner will never be a RB1 but in the Patriot offense, Woodhead is a scary RB3 on any fantasy team, especially in PPR formats.  He offers that one flex position in your lineup that other coaches will overlook only then to produce 18+ points.

LeGarrette Blount – Rising. It appears I was wrong about Blounts future potential.  Tampa Bay appears to be a great landing spot for Blount and he’s producing at a high level.  It will be telling to see what Blount can do as Tampa’s RB1 from week 1 in 2011 as I don’t believe Blount can carry the load without a second RB to keep him fresh.  Blount is a risky pick but one with  high upside as a RB2.

Rashad Jennings – Rising. Jennings has looked productive when given opportunities.  He’s stuck behind MJD but has made a case for more touches.  Don’t get carried away because Jennings will be 26 at kickoff of the 2011 season.

Tashard Choice – Rising. I believe Barber is likely done as a Cowboy, largely because Choice offers more flexibility.  Felix Jones has under-performed leaving many carries up for grabs.  I have always liked Choice and he’ll get his opportunity to be a starter in 2011.

Bernard Scott – Rising. I’ve been waiting for Scott to get his opportunity and I believe he’ll get a chance to start in 2011.  The season of change has arrived in Cinci and with it should be a move to a back with more a more dynamic style.  Cedric Benson is still capable but very one dimensional.  Scott,  27 in 2011, if given an opportunity can provide a few years of productivity.

Anthony Dixon – Rising. Don’t forget about Dixon this off-season.  Gore is still the starter but will be giving up carries to Dixon to stay fresh.  Gore tends to break down when carries rise so look for the new coach to lean on Dixon more in 2011.

Javon Ringer – Rising. Ringer has always reminded me of Ray Rice and they have a similar skill set.  While Ringer is stuck behind CJ1.4k, he is someone to stash on your roster if given the chance.  Trust me on this one, Ringer will be a productive fantasy starter when given an opportunity.  He has great leg drive, runs low, has great vision and great hands.

Lance Ball – Rising. Knowshon continues to underwhelm in my opinion and I question his ability to be durable enough in the NFL.  That leaves the door open for Ball, who has looked more than capable at times.  I believe Moreno will continue to take the lion’s share of carries in 2011, but Ball could push for an increased role.

Joe McKnight – Neutral. Just a quick mention of McKnight here as the season is coming to an end.  The L.T. watch will be on again in the off-season and should he choose to retire, McKnight sees a sizable increase in value.  At least until he’s able to garner more touches.  Until then, he’s likely only a deep developmental talent.

Jonathan Dwyer – Neutral. Dwyer’s value isn’t rising and, in fact, many dynasty coaches are starting to cut bait.   Stash him on the bottom of your roster, and like a good wine, let him age.  He’ll be 22 in mid-2011 and likely won’t see the field much, but I fully expect Dwyer to continue to develop and get a chance to start at some point.

Beanie Wells – Falling. Talk about inconsistency, unrealized potential and falling value.  Wells, the sleeper of many this past season, remained a true sleeper and never woke up in 2010.  While Wells has shown flashes of potential, fellow back Tim Hightower continues to look more explosive and capable.  Wells is an enigma and shouldn’t be valued highly until he proves that he can be more than he has been.

Ryan Mathews – Falling. A high pick for us in the DLF Experts League, Mathews failed to impress in 2010.  With one week to go, Mathews needs to take advantage of an injured Mike Tolbert to showcase what 2011 could hold.  The emergence of Tolbert doesn’t bode well for more carries in 2011, but should Mathews be injury free, owners will certainly see more production.

Fred Jackson – Falling. Jackson hits that magical age for running backs in Feb. of 2011.  Regardless of age, the Buffalo backfield just doesn’t offer enough production on a consistent basis to warrant anything other than a weak RB3 draft selection.  Jackson should appear only on teams that are competing as an emergency fill-in player.  Rebuilding teams should move on from Jackson.

CJ Spiller – Falling. I wasn’t high on Spiller in the draft and nothing has changed my view.  Spiller has been a huge disappointment in 2010 and his prospects look no better in 2011.  Buffalo’s offensive line leaves much to be desired and even the departure of Marshawn Lynch, which was said to result is more carries, failed to spark any significant production.  Spiller is not without talent, but the conditions just aren’t right for him to excel any time soon.

Donald Brown – Falling. So just when will Brown excel?  With a perfect opportunity to showcase his skills for a potential starting gig, Brown instead was again injured and unimpressive.  Brown still does have that shifty running style, good hands and decent vision, but hasn’t been able to put it together consistently in a system that should allow for more productivity.  Instead, he’s allowed Javarris James and Mike Hart to exist in the same backfield, the former amassing 6 short yardage TDs.  Brown still appears to be second on the depth chart but he needs to steer clear of injuries in 2011.

Pierre Thomas – Falling. I’m tempted to list Thomas as “Neutral” but the emergency of Chris Ivory likely leaves Thomas as trade bait in 2011.  Thomas is only 26 and, if healthy, could be a highly productive back in the right system.  Should Thomas be traded in 2011, I’ll be higher on his prospects.

Reggie Bush – Falling. I just don’t know what Bush is anymore.  Between his injury history and sporadic play, Bush isn’t even a RB3 on most fantasy teams.

Wide Receivers

Brandon Freakin’ Lloyd.  In almost all formats, Brandon Lloyd is the #1 WR in terms of fantasy points (FPs).  Lloyd the perfect example of why you should be willing to add breakout players week over week, almost regardless of age.  It’s too easy to dismiss a breakout game from an aging player with the assumption that it’s a flash in the pan.  In most cases, it probably is, but in other cases it’s Brandon Lloyd, Arian Foster, or Peyton Hillis.  Beyond Lloyd, the receiver group in 2010 saw a few mild upside surprises, notable rookie seasons and downside disappointments.

Obviously, this position pool is much deeper.  Rather than notate every slight increase or decrease in value, I am going to focus on those players that you should be targeting for those last few roster spots reserved for deep developmental players.  Add these players as you can with a 1-3 year window of fantasy production.  Notable value declines will be noted as well, but the focus is clearly on prospective additions.

James Jones – Rising. This is the ideal time to add a receiver like Jones.  Driver should be no more than the 3rd WR in Green Bay next year and may retire altogether.   Jones beat out Jordy Nelson as the replacement for Driver and showcased good play-making skills.  He’s physical with good run-after-the-catch skills and should flirt with double digit TDs in that system in 2011 if he’s starting.

Danario Alexander – Rising. Alexander has the size and speed to make fantasy coaches drool, but he’s also got an injury history that makes him extremely risky.  I wouldn’t recommend anything other than a waiver wire claim or as a throw-in to get a deal done, but he’s worth a roster spot until he blows out a knee.

Mike Thomas – Rising. Thomas has finally emerged in Jacksonville and will likely be starting for the Jags next year.  He’s best suited as a slot receiver but he plays bigger than his size would suggest.  Many coaches just aren’t valuing him yet so he’s a good buy-low target, especially in PPR formats.

Anthony Armstrong – Rising. Armstrong has the look of one of those late blooming WRs.  In an offense that sorely needs playmakers, Armstrong has stepped up to be relatively reliable in the passing game.  Inconsistent QB play limited his numbers further, but going into 2011 it certainly appears that Armstrong has positioned himself for a larger role.

Emmanuel Sanders – Rising. With the decline of Hines Ward, Sanders is in an ideal situation to benefit in 2011.   Sanders reminds me of DeSean Jackson in many ways and should find more opportunities in 2011.  It may be another 1-2 years before we see what Sanders can become, but he’s young and is in the right system to eventually be a producer.

Jordan Shipley – Rising. It’s hard not to like Shipley’s long term potential.  In an offense that feature bigger WR names, the rookie Shipley became Carson Palmer’s Wes Welker hauling in 50 passes and 3 TDs with a game still to go.  A lot of things are going to change during the off-season in Cinci, but it will all benefit Shipley in the long run.

Josh Morgan – Rising. There’s a lot to like about Morgan and he’s likely on your waiver wire right now.  He’s not flashy but I believe his best years are ahead of him, possibly on a new team.  Inconsistent QB play muted his 2010 numbers and the emergence of Michael Crabtree didn’t help either, but Morgan is worth a late-season addition if you have the space.

Andre Roberts – Rising. Roberts was a hot item after the draft and quickly found himself on the radar of many fantasy coaches.  But after a lack-luster rookie campaign through 15 weeks, he fell off the radar just as quickly.  One week does not a star make, but Roberts looks to benefit from a potentially-departing Steve Breaston in 2011.

Brian Robiskie – Rising. After another disappointing season, Robiskie has added 2 TDs and in as many weeks.  Robiskie is a mature kid with a good work ethic and good size/speed, that’s a good foundation going into his third year.

Mark Clayton – Rising. Clayton was reborn in St. Louis before tearing his Patellar tendon.  His rise to being a notable fantasy producer was a surprise but he was never without talent.  The patellar injury doesn’t have the same recovery time as an ACL, so Clayton should be good to go for 2011.  If you can get him on the cheap, feel free to do so.

Plaxico Burress – Rising. As long as he doesn’t accidentally shoot himself on the way out of jail, Burress is likely to find himself on a NFL roster this off-season.  He’s vowed to play at a high level and says that his body feels better than it has in 10 years due to the time off.  He’s a talent that is fighting age progression, but he’s intriguing on the right team.

Randy Moss – Falling. And falling quickly!  It’s hard to know where Moss actually fits in any system next year.  Tennessee does not have the system nor the quarterback situation to take advantage of what Moss can still offer.  Moss hasn’t lost much speed but is clearly now a situational WR.  You could make the case that he will be more dangerous next year due to his recent production decline, but I’m not.  Moss is borderline droppable in dynasty in my opinion but, as a Moss owner myself, I won’t/can’t do that as of yet.  I think it’s likely that he’ll be elsewhere in 2011, perhaps even back with the Patriots.  A big name QB in a good system could make Moss immediately viable again.

Larry Fitzgerald – Falling. How much does QB play affect a WR’s production?  Go no further than looking at Fitzgerald’s year over year decline.  This has nothing to do with a decline Fitzgerald’s ability and everything to do with the loss of Kurt Warner and a quality signal caller.  Arizona’s QB woes are well documented and a good solution doesn’t appear imminent.  Look for a veteran (Donovan McNabb, Kevin Kolb, Alex Smith, etc.) to enter the picture shortly before/after the draft.  Fitzgerald’s talent is still obvious but he can’t be highly coveted until some level of production returns.  He’s flirting with falling out of the top 12 within his position.

Brandon Marshall – Falling. The mega-talented receiver, similar to Fitzgerald, has seen his production and draft value decline in 2010.  Again, much like Fitzgerald, this has more to do with system and QB play than it does a reduction or drop-off in ability.  To Marshall’s credit, he has been holding his tongue of late and has yet to adversely affect team chemistry.  How long can that remain true?  Heading into 2011, Marshall’s value is sitting close to top 20 consideration, far from his normal perch.

Austin Collie – Falling. Manning can make a star out of any slot receiver and has again proven this with Austin Collie.  If not for Collie’s 2010 injury concerns, he would have produced at a WR1 pace – notable for a slot receiver.  But three concussions in a year, two of them of the major variety, casts serious doubt on Collie’s future, regardless of what the talking heads tell you.  Should Collie go down early in 2011 with a similar injurie, an early end to his career will probably be discussed.  It’s likely in my view that Collie is moved to the outside where concussion type hits are less common.  Drafting Collie highly carries a Caveat Emptor tag.

Reggie Wayne – Falling. The 32 year old still has game but has lost a step and doesn’t appear to be an elite option any longer.  Still important as a receiver that can anchor your weekly roster, the days of Wayne almost single handedly taking over a game are gone.

Steve Breaston – Falling. Breaston is a free agent in 2011 and it appears that the Cardinals are not keen on resigning him, instead looking to 2010 rookie Andre Roberts.  Breaston reminds me a lot of Bryant Johnson when he left Arizona and that’s not a good thing.

Devin Aromashodu – Falling. Aromashodu has been Mike Martz’d.  The preseason fantasy darling was perhaps the top sleeper WR pick heading into 2010 (from myself as well).  He’s a restricted free agent in 2011 and he’s got the talent to start, but not in a Martz system obviously.