Look around the league and you’ll have a difficult time finding a more unsettled team than the Denver Broncos. From the coaching, quarterback, receiver, defense and even at running back, many questions remain.
I had intended to write this piece about Denver’s running backs and what to expect in the near future. But in surveying the situation as a whole, it’s obvious that a more macro approach is in order. Coming off a disappointing 4-12 2010 campaign, change is on the wind. With an offense that struggled to find consistency and a defense that was consistently bad, the Broncos have their work cut out for them. A trip to the Super Bowl in 2011 certainly isn’t in the cards in 2011, but Denver fans are as supportive and fanatical as they come and there are plenty of reasons to remain hopeful about the future with the recent youth movement that is now under way.
Make no mistake, the Broncos are looking to move beyond quarterback Kyle Orton as quickly as they can get any reasonable offer. It has been said that Orton will not be moved unless significant compensation is returned but don’t believe for a second that it is not understood that Orton is not considered an elite signal caller. To his credit Orton has proven to be a sufficient game manager and in his time both with the Bears and the Broncos, he has performed admirably, notching a 59:33 TD/INT ratio. One could even argue that Orton has well outplayed his perceived value. However, in the wings awaits the dynamic Tim Tebow and Denver simply has to get Tebow on the field in order to determine what can be expected from him going forward. With little pressure to make a deep playoff run in 2011, Tebow is the odds-on favorite to be under center week one. For Orton, look for him to land in the city that loses the Kevin Kolb bidding war, be it Arizona or Seattle. Arizona is said to like Orton well enough, but they could simply be using the name as leverage.
For Tebow, I believe he can be a capable quarterback but he must get defensive support that would allow him to manage the game, as opposed to constantly playing from behind. Tebow’s allure still resides in his ability to create on the move but he is most dangerous when it’s not expected. Tebow’s upside likely remains in the low teens within his position over the longer term and I don’t project him more than a solid QB2 or spot bye-week fill-in.
At running back, new head coach John Fox is actively looking for an additional body to take the load off injury prone Knowshon Moreno. No doubt Fox is watching current Panther back DeAngelo Williams’ situation closely. Williams is looking for his last professional contract and one has to believe that he’ll be searching for the best balance of compensation and Super Bowl potential. Competition wise, at least, Denver is on the outside looking in as it relates to landing Williams if, or when, the time comes. For Moreno, whether his underwhelming production is due to poor down and distance situations at the hands on an inconsistent offense or lack of elite talent, it’s obvious that Denver’s brass doesn’t believe he’s the long term answer.
In fantasy, Moreno’s value is in steady decline. Once thought of as a potential RB1, speed concerns, injury and general lack of production have all taken their toll. Moreno still appears in our top 20 of dynasty backs, but 2011 will be pivotal. A time share is on the way and should the Broncos add a noteworthy back, Moreno’s statistics will likely pay the price yet again. Behind Moreno, Lance Ball continues to offer some level of intrigue and the younger Jeremiah Johnson has shown flashes of ability while in Houston. Should the Broncos not be able to add a back of any significance, Ball would be first in line to pick up the slack. At 5-9 and 220 pounds, Ball has flashed some ability himself but isn’t the receiver that Moreno is.
At wide receiver, no one could have predicted what 2010 produced. Eight year veteran, Brandon Lloyd channeled his inner Calvin Johnson on his way to a 1,448 yard, 11 TD 2010 campaign. This performance by Lloyd nearly doubled his previous seven years of statistics. Looking beyond Lloyd finds a pair of 2010 rookies Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker, as well as Eddie Royal and ten year veteran Jabar Gaffney. Thomas has been a significant disappointment already in his short career and is likely to miss half of the 2011 season due to an off-season Achilles tear. With the continued sub-par performance of Eddie Royal, Eric Decker may be receiver to buy-low currently. Heading into his second year, Decker is going to see the field and has the size and ball skills to take advantage of his time. Expectations must be kept low, but a sneaky addition of Decker on the cheap is advised. Eddie Royal will likely have the opportunity to play Denver’s version of Steve Smith for new coach John Fox. While not as physical or dynamic as Smith, Royal is not without ability and, as a fourth year receiver, his time is now.
As for Lloyd, we simply aren’t buying the production. We don’t expect a full return to anonymity for Lloyd, either, and we currently have him ranked as the 27th best dynasty receiver heading into 2011. Many will argue that this is far too low, and while it may end up being the case, we are comfortable with this ranking for the soon-to-be 30 year old receiver. Unless you are certain to be competing for your league trophy in the next two years, sell high!
As obvious as it is that coach Fox is looking for additional play makers at the running back position, it’s even moreso at TE. During the 2011 NFL draft, Fox selected two athletic but raw TEs: 1) Julius Thomas out of Portland State and 2) Virgil Green from Nevada-Reno. Having watched a bit of both, especially Julius Thomas, it’s easy to see what Fox has seen. Both are gifted athletes and receivers, but will offer little as in-line blockers. I have been intrigued with Green for some time now and believe he has the higher upside of the two, but Thomas as a former basketball player must be watched. With five tight ends on the roster, look for veteran Daniel Coats to open up the season as the starter only to see his reps drop as the Bronco’s playoff hopes fade.
On defense, the Broncos were simply bad. Holding or battling for last in most all defensive categories, defensive head coach John Fox was brought in for a reason. No time was wasted during the NFL draft as Fox quickly selected standout play-making linebacker Von Miller 2nd overall. With six of nine rookie picks on the defensive side of the ball, it is well known what Fox’s focus and charge will be in 2011.
Linebacker D.J. Williams remains the most prolific fantasy scorer and should remain so in 2011. With Von Miller slotted to play as a strong-side OLB in Denver’s 3-4 scheme, Miller will be asked to show his pass rush ability in nickel packages. Linebackers in this type of system can score on occasion, but consistency is always as issue. Miller is worthy of a rookie pick but not in your first three rounds. Speaking rather broadly, Denver’s defensive side of the ball should be mostly avoided, with the exception of D.J. Williams.
2010 was not kind to the Denver Broncos and 2011 isn’t likely to offer much more success. A commitment to youth and rebuilding will take two to three years to ultimately produce fruit but the Broncos have a coach that can accomplish just that. To wit, the Broncos have, indeed, begun to assemble notable young players that should provide the foundation needed for further team development.
But for all things fantasy related, at least for the time being, it’s best if you stay a mile away from mile high.
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If everyone continues to buy in to the meaningless off-season banter in the wake of the lockout, I’ll be able to poach some quality Denver players for cheap.
I stand by my thoughts and beliefs in the article “On John Fox and Running Expectations”.
http://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2011/on-john-fox-and-running-expectations
Too many people are discrediting Moreno, which this article only propagates.
As my friend Allen (Misfit) well knows, I am in 100% agreement on the assessment of Moreno as falling value and a player who will never reach the lofty expectations so many owners had for him. John Fox likes “his guys”. I find it highly likely that a running back from Carolina is the leading rusher in Mile High this coming season.
If I owned Moreno, I would be a seller to those who breathed their sigh of relief after the NFL draft. I wouldn’t feel comfortable with him as a starter for my fantasy team.
How would you address Nate Irving’s impact on DJ Williams?
I don’t think Irving will be much of a threat to Williams’ takcles right away. In the 3-4, Williams flows to the ball pretty well and this will be his second year in the system if the Broncos keep it. I think Miller can be a playmaker in that system as well but he’ll be inconsistent. Irving is worth drafting but I can’t say who will be the best LB two years from now.
Expect D.J. Williams to maybe get a 1-2 game suspension this year for his DUI last year. i beleive it is his second. I think nate irving is gonna be a better LB then Von. I think Decker is gonna have a solid year also i got him in the 14th rnd of our FA/rookie draft. I won the championship last year and lloyd was a big reason for it.I think he has one more year of production n gives me another good shot at the playoffs. Just my opinion.
I was also able to trade Dj Williams straight up for steve smith(car)
i think demaryus thomas is going to be a stud one day if he can ever stay healthy. no way would i label him a bust this early in his career.
Far too early to say any rookie is a bust from the 2010 class, especially a player like Thomas. He’s been disappointing in that he just hasn’t put in much time that he needs to speed up the process, but he’s still got a lot of talent.
well, i saw u refer to the broncos playing in a 3-4 still. do u know something i don’t? fox has said they will be going back to the 4-3,and as a bronco fan i have heard nothing of them stayin in a 3-4, just curious
Last I heard, there hadn’t been a final decision, but that doesn’t surprise me if they have decided on a 4-3. Fox has a history with the 4-3 and he’s a defensive coach … so he should probably move back to it. Seeing as Denver was last, or near last, in most categories the correct move would be to go back to a 4-3, something that Fox knows.
That said, some of how they have said they want to use Von Miller may not jive with a true 4-3
i actually heard they were moving to a 4-3, during a press confence, miller is going to play slb andthey will move him around, duringpassing down, just was seeing if u heard anything different
all the def coaching staff is pretty much 4-3, fox has played in both but they did say they were moving to a 4-3,
Broncos are going 4-3 with Nate at MLB, provided he can win the job from Joe Mays, which is likely. Nate Irving is the LB to own in dynasty.
I like the look of Mays, will be an interesting camp battle. Thanks for the note, that’s good info. I’m more excited about what Miller can do on the strong side in a 4-3.
4-3 is a done deal from all accounts I’ve read. Ayers and Dumerville at DE and besides Von Miller only one LB position is set with DJ Williams. More will be revealed. Outside of Bailey and the players I mentioned (above) all the other defensive starting spots are up for grabs, though Vickerson seems to have an inside track at one DT spot.
What up guys. I’m freaking out a little about Moreno with all these columnists saying that the top brass doesn’t like him, he’s a third down back, not a franchise back, etc. To me it sounds a little crazy, I think he’s done pretty good when he hasn’t been injured. Should I move this guy? Potentials in my league’s landscape are Blount, Shonn Greene, Danieal Manning (after he’s drafted), JStew, Felix Jones, Maybe Best, Maybe Gore
Thoughts?
Thanks
Personally, if you could move him for Jonathan Stewart, I’d do it. The other guys, don’t know that I’d risk it.
Moreno is still young and while he does have his naysayers, that doesn’t make him a sub-par performer until he becomes one. He has been disappointing overall in my opinion and I also own him in one of my leagues. I’d be selling if I could get a top young back or a back with great upside, but you don’t need to rush out and dump him.
I was much higher on him until his senior year and then he started falling in my eyes. Then when his long speed proved what I expected, and I matched it with everything else, I thought his high end was as a RB2. Even now I don’t think he’s a good RB2 … low end RB2 at best until he proves differently.
What to do with him is more a question as it pertains to your other RBs. If you have sufficient depth, it’s not a big issue. If he’s your RB1, you could be in significant trouble.
It is no secret that Denver is going back to the 4-3 defense this year under Fox. If you do not have any alternatives to Moreno as a starter then yes….I may be a lil nervous but at the same time I wouldn’t buy anything that Elway and crew are saying as Elway learned from the best when it comes to smoke screens. If anything, they are wanting to have another back to be able to give Moreno some breaks in order to keep him healthy but to say that they have given up on the guy is a bit of a stretch considering how well he played last year when healthy with few practice reps.
In summary…..I wouldn’t be quick to trade Moreno unless you can get decent value because he is not going to bring much in return because of all the media rumors that are circulating. If you can negotiate a decent trade, then have at it….otherwise I would stay put and see what happens because it’s not like the guy is not capable and it’s not like Fox ain’t gonna try to run the ball….