2011 NFL Combine Wrap-up

No, it’s not over technically over yet, but I’ve seen enough in order to produce my first post-combine ranking list.

The 2011 NFL combine produced some quality results.  Enough so that I am a bit more optimistic in an area or two than I was prior to this weekend.  Overall, I believe(d) this draft is well below some of the quality drafts in the last ten years.  In certain areas, most notably in the quarterback and running back positions, I had very limited optimism for the quality of depth beyond one or two players.  In broad terms, I still have this opinion, but the running back position does hold a bit more intrigue for me.  But I stand by my opinion that it is still a position wrought with risk in the top tiers.

To balance my rise in optimism for the running backs, I found myself largely unimpressed by a majority of the receivers.   Much like both the running back and quarterback positions, there are few clear-cut names to target outside the obvious few.  While this is not a good situation if you have a first round draft pick in the 4-8 range, it does provide plenty of opportunity outside of this range as it will be hard to slot many of the rookies.  I’ll do my best here to help you with the initial rankings.

I was pleasantly surprised to see most of the rookies work out Sunday and not pull-out of drills.  With the exception of Blaine Gabbert (who did run the 40) and Daniel Thomas, all higher profile players worked out.   RBs Taiwan Jones and Noel Devine are the only other notables that failed to participate.

Quarterbacks

It was good to see most of the big names take part.  More than at any other time (lacking further research) it’s safe to say that this is the fastest QB class in the past decade or two.  Whether players at this position are just getting faster or by anomaly, this year’s class is nothing short of exceptional in that regard.

In short to intermediate routes, I was impressed with how most could spin it.  Velocity and quality were better than average.  Longer routes were disappointing and there seemed to be a lack of “touch” present.  This may have much to do with the lack of chemistry with the receivers but it was notably weak compared to previous years in my estimation.  Footwork and mechanics were fair and that may be a stretch.

Rather than bore you with numbers you can readily find on any football site, I’ll get to my rankings.  I will post the players’ 40 times following their name.  In order, here are my initial rankings, along with a short note on each:

1.  Cam Newton (4.59) – He’s just too intriguing of a prospect to list below Gabbert.  He comes with a large head, but if controlled, that can serve him well.  He was high on many of his short passes and a bit erratic, but he made up for it with speed, jumping ability and a relatively good interview in front of the the NFL Network cast.

2.  Blaine Gabbert (4.62) – Gabbert looks the part, seems to be a good kid and is a relatively safe choice for NFL teams.  He’s not elite in my book, but has enough tangible and intangible balance that a good system and coach should be able to mold him into a passable NFL quarterback.  He reminds me a lot of Matthew Stafford.

3.  Ryan Mallett (5.10) – Mallett as my #3 is a tough decision.  I don’t like character issues and baggage, especially in my quarterbacks.  But little has been proven about Mallett and he  throws a nice ball, has great size and seems to have the ability to lead.  He comes with great risk and that Ryan Leaf comparison will dog him until he’s able to disprove it on the field over time.  Beware adversity in Mallett, he doesn’t respond well.

4.  Colin Kaepernick (4.43) – Kaepernick is an intriguing prospect.  He’s got a rifle for an arm, is tall, agile and can make every throw seemingly with ease.  I was very impressed by most every part of his workout, save his mechanics.  He looks sloppy and disjointed when throwing the ball and is not compact.  A good QB coach will go a long way to making his release a single motion and improving his footwork.  I came very close to rating Kaepernick as my #3 QB on upside alone.

5.  Jake Locker (4.50) – Locker is a rough stone.  Polishing will take time but it’s obvious that he has the athleticism and the arm to make for a solid foundation.  Whether or not his decision making and accuracy can be improved will only be determined over time.  The bigger issue for me is his looming baseball career and his elusive answers as to his commitment to football.  To me, this speaks volumes about his mental awareness about what baseball could offer if he doesn’t go highly in the draft or to a good situation.  GMs and coaches will be highly suspect of his commitment as well on draft day.

6.  Christian Ponder (4.85) – Ponder really stood out at the combine and I, multiple times, had to ask myself “who was that?” – having been conditioned to look for Newton, Mallett and Locker.  Ponder isn’t a huge presence in the backfield but he perhaps had the best combine of any passer on Sunday.

7.  Ricky Stanzi (4.81) - Not a great showing for Stanzi.  He’s a late round prospect.

8.  Andy Dalton (4.96) – See Ricky Stanzi.

Running Backs

As I’ve said before, I’m not high on this RB class.  But during this combine, I’m more intrigued than I was.  This is not to say that I’d be excited to have pick #3, #4 or #5 to be able to take the next RB off the board, but there is potential from some of the backs that will be selected in fantasy drafts beyond pick five.  Looking out five years, I would not be surprised to see a back taken beyond pick ten in fantasy be the top back out of this class.

1.  Mark Ingram (4.62) – I am disappointed by his time considering his lost weight, but it shouldn’t affect his top billing status.  Ingram also measured in less than ideal in my book but looked strong, agile and determined in drills.  He’s got good hips, balance and I like how he runs under control and loose below the waste.  Likely to be your #1 pick in fantasy unless you are in a PPR system and in need of a WR.

2.  Mikel Leshoure (4.59) – For a back of Leshoure’s size, 4.59 is a nice time.  He looked heavier than his 230 lbs. and didn’t appear to be in top condition, but you can tell what he brings to the table and there is no mistaking his power and style.  He also demonstrated more agility than I expected.  Leshoure has a contingent of people that believe he should be the first off the board at RB, and it’s not hard to see why, especially considering his faster 40 time.  If you like Mendenhall, you’re looking at much the same runner in Leshoure.

3.  Ryan Williams (4.61) – Williams also disappointed me with his time and I’m having a hard time keeping him at his current ranking.  Williams can be a dynamic runner and without the injury tag, could be the top prospect in this year’s draft.  But his slow 40 and relatively small hands could see him slide well into the late 2nd round.

4.  Shane Vereen (4.50) – Vereen showed up big at the combine and likely raised his draft stock a good measure.  Earlier in the week, Vereen measured in at just over 5’10″ and a good looking 210 pounds.  He then, later, pushed up the 225 pound bench press an impressive 31 times.  Then, on Sunday, he ran a 4.50 40 and looked natural plucking the ball in receiving drills.  I could very easily make a case for Vereen moving up to #3, and he may in my final list.

5.  Roy Helu, Jr. (4.42) – Much like Vereen at #4, Helu raised his stock on Sunday.  He impressed me  with a much faster 40 time than expected and displayed impressive size/bulk as well as better than average results in individual drills.  He looks a bit stiff in the hips to me at I’m going to need to watch more tape on him before my final rankings, but he’s done enough to crack the top 5.  He reminds me a bit of Ben Tate and Kolby Smith in that he isn’t great in any one area, but is good in most.

6.  DeMarco Murray (4.41) – Murray is an enigma and I just don’t know what to expect from him at the next level.  He turned in a nice 40 time and displayed greater bulk than I expected at nearly 6′ tall.  He’s a wild card a bit like Jamal Charles and reminds me a lot of him.

7.  Kendall Hunter (4.53) – There’s a lot I like about Hunter.  He doesn’t run “small” and he has the look of a starting RB.  Those of you that know my ranking system know that size figures prominently as smaller productive fantasy backs are the exception, not the norm.  At 5’7″, he’s not going to make many compare him to Ray Rice, but he has the same toughness.  His style reminds me a lot of Javon Ringer.

8.  Taiwan Jones (DNP) – I was disappointed to see Jones pull out of drills.  I was very interested in seeing him run.  Until then, I’m keeping him in my top 10 as an intriguing prospect.

9.  Da’Rel Scott (4.34) – Any back that can run a 4.34 at 5’11″/211 lbs. gets my attention.  And the rest of his drills were somewhat eye opening, whether due to the fact that he wasn’t really on my radar or because he stood out – both are true.   More research is needed before moving him up or down on my list.  I can’t help but get the image of Chris Henry (RB) out of my mind.

10.    Daniel Thomas (DNP) – Slipping mightily and I won’t rank him higher until I see more of him.

Wide Receivers

When Blackmon and Floyd decided to return to school, much of my excitement for the 2011 draft went with them.  I really believed that those two names, when combined with Green and Jones, would have made for one of the most dynamic first round receiver drafts in many, many years.  As it stands, it’s likely that Green and Jones will be the only first round receivers taken, unless Torrey Smith can sneak into the bottom of round one.

Much like the running backs, the drop-off in receiver talent after the top two is a steep one.  What remains will be a roll of the dice, perhaps allowing you to score a productive player much later than would otherwise be possible.

1.  A.J. Green (4.50) – Green didn’t help himself during the combine, nor did he hurt himself.  Green is what Green is, a dynamic down-field receiver that has the heart and motor needed to be successful at the NFL level.  I was disappointed with Green’s displayed leaping ability (34″) and fully expected him to jump 38″+ but this won’t hurt his draft stock.  He’s a natural and pure threat at receiver and he’ll be the top WR off the board in all but Alabama. 

2.  Julio Jones (4.39) – The only thing Jones didn’t display this past weekend was a cape.  Jones jumped 11’3″ in the broad jump, 38.5″ in the vertical and ran a 4.39 in the 40.  Oh yeah, and he did it with a broken foot.  It was a ridiculous performance.  He doesn’t have the hands that Green has, but he’s 1b to Green’s 1a status.

3.  Torrey Smith (4.43) – I’ve soured on him just a bit since before the combine.  He can get deep and does have good bulk for his size, but I’m not seeing the dynamic I normally like in my WRs.  After watching his gauntlet drill I was struck by the pace at which he wasn’t running, leading me to believe that he didn’t trust his hands as he should.  After seeing numerous twitter posts about how fast he was in the drill, I watched again and don’t know what these individuals were looking at.  He was slower and deliberate in the drill.  Still, he has plenty of upside and is the best receiver in the class at his size.

4.  Leonard Hankerson (4.43) – At 10 5/8″, Hankerson had the biggest hands on the field in the receiver group.  I was pleasantly surprised at his 40 time, expecting a dash in the low 4.5s.  On the down side, I was unimpressed at his 34″ vertical jump, expecting that he would be perhaps the best leaper in the class.  He’s raw, but physical and plucks the ball very well.  Hankerson has a lot of upside and comes from a great program for NFL success.

5.  Jonathan Baldwin (4.50) – Baldwin held his ground well during the combine.  Running faster than expected at 4.50, the speed answers the main question that remained for me.  Baldwin is a bit stiff as larger receivers tend to be, but was fluid.  Baldwin’s strength won’t be in speed-out routes and should make his living in getting vertical but as a big target, he will pull down many balls in the intermediate passing game.

6.  Tandon Doss (DNP) – Big receiver, big hands and NFL upside.  He should be in the 4.5s in the 40 and is a late 2nd round fantasy selection.

7.  Greg Little (4.53) – A big, physical, and intimidating receiver, Little was able to put up 27 reps on the 225 lb. bench press.  He’s raw and sat out his final year at North Carolina but I like his toughness and physicality and believe he could have Boldin style ability.  His smaller hands are a bit of a concern.

8.  Titus Young (4.53) – I’m not as high on Young as many others are.  Called a poor man’s DeSean Jackson, Young failed to impress with his 40 time, something a slight receiver can’t afford to do.  He can be dynamic but he’s hard to draft highly.

9.  Edmund Gates (4.37) – Gates will likely be moving ahead of Titus Young in my next ranking list.  He reminds me much more of DeSean Jackson that does the aforementioned Young.  Don’t sleep on Gates though because he also has a NFL body.

10.  Jimmy Young (4.55) – A major project, I liked what I saw out of Young at the combine.  He had a dynamic that was unmistakable and had an “it” factor that I normally look for in my receivers.  Other receivers that have had this same level of “it” have been Greg Jennings, Jordan Shipley and DeSean Jackson.

Tight Ends

An uninspiring group of tight ends in 2011 in my estimation.  Perhaps one to be selected in the 2nd round of most fantasy drafts.

1.  D.J. Williams (4.67) -  Under sized but I like his fluidity and his route running.  Dustin Keller anyone?

2.  Virgil Green (4.64)  – I love this kid’s drive, dynamic and size.  He’s going to be a surprise at the next level

3.  Lance Kendricks (4.75)

4.  Luke Stocker (4.79)

5.  Kyle Rudolph (DNP) -