2011 Experts League Draft – In Progress (Updated: 6/1)

In 2010, DLF invited individuals from the best football sites from around the Net to join us in a new Dynasty Experts League.  The first year was a great success and many differing strategies were on display in the inaugural draft.  Now entering our second season and with our rookie and free agent draft recently under-way, the picks and the trades are flying as teams prepare to do battle once again.  One change for 2011:  KeeperLeagueGM.com has withdrawn with ProFootballFocus.com taking their place.

For reference, you can find the rosters page here:

Dynasty Experts League Rosters

Before taking you to the drafting action for year two, let me recap DLF’s first year strategy.  Ken Kelly and I wanted to come out strong in the initial draft, leveraging our second year picks in an attempt to land quality young talent in the first three rounds.  As such, we traded away our first round pick of 2011 and ended up with QB Aaron Rodgers, and RBs Jonathan Stewart and RB Ryan Mathews. Despite the poor seasons by the aforementioned backs, our team salvaged the season with a strong second half performance on the backs of RB Darren McFadden, a nice risk-reward pick in Wes Welker and a resurgence of TE Jason Witten.  If not for sub-par receiver play early in 2010, we likely would have made the playoffs.  Instead, we tied for the fifth best record in the league.  Heading into 2011, while relatively deep at RB there is more risk with Stewart and Mathews than we planned on and we are light in receiver, the latter which we will likely need to address during the draft.

Let’s take a look at the action thus far:

Round 1

1.01  FantasyFootball.com  – Julio Jones, WR ATL
1.02  Fantasy Sharks – Mark Ingram, RB NO
1.03  Fantasy Sharks – A.J. Green, WR CIN
1.04  FantasyFootball.com – Daniel Thomas, RB MIA
1.05  Pro Football Focus – Greg Little, WR CLE
1.06  RotoExperts – Ryan Williams, RB ARI
1.07  FantasyFootball.com – Mikel Leshoure, RB DET
1.08  FantasyFootball.com – Jonathan Baldwin, WR KC
1.09  Fantasy Sharks - Bilal Powell, RB NYJ
1.10  FootballGuys – Delone Carter, RB IND
1.11  Rotoworld – Roy Helu, RB WAS
1.12  FantasyFootball.com – Cam Newton, QB CAR

FantasyFootball.com had just the opposite strategy as us in 2010, selling nearly all of his higher picks in the draft for 2011 selections and selecting very young players with those that he kept.  While the selection of Julio Jones at 1.01 is surprising, it’s hard to argue with his first round haul of Julio Jones, Daniel Thomas, Mikel Leshoure, Jonathan Baldwin and Cam Newton.  The first major surprise is the selection of Greg Little at 1.05.  Little is a good looking prospect but this is a true reach in my estimation.  Ryan Williams at 1.06 is a nice value selection, RotoExperts have to be happy with their good fortune.

Almost as surprising as the Little pick are the back to back selections of Bilal Powell and Delone Carter.  Powell and Carter are situational runners in all likelihood and while anything is possible in the NFL, these two backs just don’t project that well within their selected offenses or beyond.  Chalk the selections up to the old saying of “Beauty is in the the eye of the beholder.”  Rotoworld’s selection of Helu at 1.11 is a nice selection and while he doesn’t leap off the page in any one category, he is a very capable back and could have great value in Shanahan’s offense.  That said, determining which back will ever be number one in a Shanahan offense is somewhat of a fool’s folly.  Cam Newton as the last pick in the first round is a great value selection and represents the best player available.

Round 2

2.01  FantasyFootball.com – Mason Foster, LB TB
2.02  Fantasy Sharks – Nate Irving, LB DEN
2.03  Rotoworld – Shane Vereen, RB NE
2.04  DynastyGuys – Randall Cobb, WR GB
2.05  Pro Football Focus – Kendall Hunter, RB SF
2.06  RotoExperts – Austin Pettis, WR STL
2.07  Fantasyfootball.com – Torrey Smith, WR BAL
2.08  Fantasyfootball.com – Martez Wilson, LB NO
2.09  FantasyfootballXtreme – Leonard Hankerson, WR WAS
2.10  Fantasy Sharks – Alex Green, RB GB
2.11  Fantasyfootball.com – Jaiquawn Jarrett, S PHI
2.12  ESPN/Scouts Inc. – Blaine Gabbert, QB CAR

The second round gets off to an interesting start with the selection of Mason Foster by FantasyFootball.com.  Foster could very well be starting for TB in 2011 and does have good IDP upside, but he likely would have been available a full round later.  The Nate Irving selection is similar to the Foster selection and obviously some teams are feeling IDP early.  Kendall Hunter is a nice value selection and I would not be surprised if he is the best back out of this draft when looking back five years from now.

Update (5/30) – Sometimes I wonder if it is me and my analysis.  Leonard Hankerson going after the likes of Austin Pettis and Martez Wilson?  I’m not sure if there was mass hysteria in the streets or perhaps Hankerson just isn’t highly thought of in the Experts league, but he lasts until 2.09.  I was trying like mad to trade up to get him but, alas, Fantasyfootball.com didn’t see my emails before making the selection.  While we really don’t need another young WR as much as we do a productive WR, Hankerson would have been a great value for us at 2.08.  We weren’t willing to give up any draft picks next year and are willing to allow our strategy from last year play out.  We’ll need some luck to make the playoffs but we have some solid potential – but more risk than we would like.  Alex

Alex Green went about where I expected him to go and most are over-drafting him.  It happens every year with these system RBs that splash onto the page in early season drafts.  Green is not without talent but Hawaii doesn’t produce much in the way of running backs for a reason.  I do like Green’s versatility however.  Matt Williamson scoring Gabbert at 2.12 is a coup as well.  Nice job Matty!  You can’t pass that up when it falls to you.

Round 3

3.01  Fantasy Sharks - DeMarco Murray, RB DAL
3.02  Fantasy Sharks – Vincent Brown, WR SD
3.03  Rotoworld – Jacquizz Rodgers, RB ATL
3.04  Dynasty Guys - Titus Young, WR DET
3.05  Pro Football Focus – Greg Salas, WR STL
3.06  RotoExperts – Christian Ponder, QB MIN
3.07  NoOffseason.com – Von Miller, LB DEN
3.08  Fantasyfootball.com – Robert Quinn, DE STL
3.09  FantasyFootballXtreme – Lance Kendricks, TE STL
3.10  FootballGuys – Kyle Rudolph, TE MIN
3.11  Pigskin Addition – Geno Hayes, LB TB
3.12  Dynasty Guys – Stevan Ridley, RB NE

Murray lasted longer than I expected.  He seems to have some buzz around him but I’m not that high on him myself.  He does have some Jamal Charles in him but I’m just not that intrigued.  I have been in the past but have soured on him over the last six months.  Vincent Brown continues to get more respect than I give him myself, I don’t see it nor do I expect him to pan out, especially in San Diego.  Christian Ponder to RotoExperts at 3.06 is surprisingly low in my book but as there are enough QBs to go around, rookie QBs tend to fall.  Von Miller has an intriguing blend of attributes and play making ability and I like him in the Denver system, I think he could be a steal there and vastly outplay his fantasy-drafted position.  Lance Kendricks is a nice pickup by Xtreme and while I don’t know if I see McDaniels using him, if they scheme for him, he’ll have great upside in the mold of a Dustin Keller.

Round 4

4.01  FantasyFootball.com - Cameron Jordan, DE NO
4.02  Fantasy Sharks – Evan Royster, RB WAS
4.03  Rotoworld – Jabaal Sheard, DE CLE
4.04  Dynasty Guys - Johnny White, RB BUF
4.05  FootballGuys – Edmond Gates, WR MIA
4.06  RotoExperts – Kevin Walter, WR HOU
4.07  NoOffseason.com – Andy Dalton, QB CIN
4.08  ESPN/Scouts Inc. – Robert Housler, TE ARI
4.09  FantasyFootballXtreme – Colin Kaepernick, QB SF
4.10  FootballGuys – Bruce Carter, LB DAL
4.11  Pigskin Addition – Ryan Mallett, QB NE
4.12  Pro Football Focus – Jordan Cameron, TE CLE

Evan Royster is a good round four selection.  He was a good looking prospect early in his college days at Penn State but steadily wore down and nearly went undrafted.  In Shanahan’s offense, all running backs have more value than they otherwise would.  He’s a master at finding lower round talent and finding ways to get them time.  Royster isn’t fast by any stretch and has difficulty keeping his weight down, but he has a shot.  Johnny White is a great 2011 rookie sleeper and he’s one of my favorite unknown players in the draft.  I took White in the second round of another draft and love his playing situation – I’m not a fan of his team situation.  Shocking that Dalton went so late.  It truly looks like Dalton will be handed the starting job and he’s got a nice group of young receivers to throw to.  Kaepernick is one of my favorite QB prospects in the 2011 rookie class, I love his tangible skill set, his mobility and his moxie.

I’m going to cut it off there but not before mentioning the shocking pick that occurred in the fifth round, of which there is simply no good explanation.  Jake Locker was selected at 5.04.  This goes to show that even in an Expert League, sometimes it’s possible not to see the forest through the trees.  The only reasonable explanation for this was that it wasn’t noticed that he had gone undrafted.  It happens.  Unfortunately, our first pick in the draft did not come until 5.08.