Player Spotlight: Donald Brown

Jeff Haverlack

donald brown
So what’s an owner to think about Donald Brown or, more importantly, his future?

In short, few would describe his two-year slate of production as anything more than disappointing.  After all, in backing up the injury prone Joseph Addai, Brown has had plenty of opportunities to assume the starting position.  Instead, Brown has done his best Addai imitation by struggling with injuries himself and being less than advertised with the carries he has had.  So much so that the Colts now find themselves between a rock and a hard place with what to do with Addai, a 2011 free agent.

Word is that the Colts would like to bring back Addai in 2011, primarily due to lack of trust they have in Brown.  While Brown is a highly regarded individual with a great work ethic and mental capacity, he has yet to prove that he can stay healthy over a 16 game season.  More dynamic than Addai, Brown does have the ability to break the long run and is capable as a receiver as well.  Where Brown is lacking is in his blocking and his ability to move the pile in short yardage situations, evidenced by one Javarris James vulching six touchdowns in 2010 in goal line situations.

So with 207 career carries and a pedestrian 3.8 ypc. average, where to from here for the young (24) back?

With all due respect to Brown, 2010 was the year to prove that he could take over as the lead back.  Peyton Manning still doesn’t trust Brown in a blitz pick-up role and he simply didn’t show enough during the year for the Colts to move on from Addai.  Now the Colts are forced into the situation of needing to resign Addai (which they should accomplish) to give Brown another year of development.  2011 is the new 2010 for Brown.

Blitz pick-up duty can take young backs 2-3 years to understand and perfect, much like route running with respect to young receivers.  Without dynamic play-making ability, teams cannot risk under-performance in this area, even more-so should the quarterback being protected be named Peyton Manning.  For Brown, reps. mean experience and I fully expect that blocking will not be a significant hurdle to be cleared.  The ability to stay healthy, on the other hand, will dictate Brown’s future success and is far more concerning.

Should Brown rid himself of nagging hamstring and ankle injuries, all logic suggests that he will again be given the chance to see significant carries in 2011.  In his third year, Brown will certainly now understand the need to adopt more of a downhill running style that will find him in the secondary more quickly than his line-dancing style that has, instead, found him on the bench in short yardage situations.  With two years left on his contract, and still young, there is little way the Colts have made any determination beyond 2011 as has been suggested by some beat-writers; Brown embodies the work ethic and the character that define the Colts organization.  Beyond that, however, Brown must show that he can stay on the field and be trusted by those around him – that will only be accomplished through the avoidance of another injury.

The Colts drafted Delone Carter out of Syracuse in the fourth round of the 2011 NFL Draft, serving Brown at least some level of notice.  I’ve watched Carter enough to know that he is NOT an every-down back, won’t be used in the passing game and isn’t dynamic enough to be a lead back, at least not with what has been shown thus far.  In all likelihood, Carter was drafted to secure short yardage situational duty.  Some have suggested that Delone Carter is likely to be Addai’s back-up or even, potentially, the back receiving the lion’s share of carries in 2011.  I simply don’t see this as a possibility in 2011 and this is much more an indictment of Brown than confidence in Carter.

In our most recent dynasty mock draft within our Dynasty Essentials Guide, Brown was selected in the 7th round and his current redraft ADP rests in the 11th round.   Being only 24, Brown has plenty of upside and opportunity to provide a good risk-reward play to dynasty drafters, especially those with well-regarded starters already assembled.  The 11th round ADP ranking, in my mind, makes for a superior risk-reward play for redraft leagues, as surprise players that emerge mid-season can put a team over the top in a given year.  Brown represents this type of possibility in 2011 and should be drafted prior to the 10th round.

In trade, there is enough negativity surrounding Brown that he makes for a great buy-low target, or as a throw-in player in a larger trade.  If you are an owner of Brown, you’re holding an asset that simply won’t have enough value in trade to move at this point.  Rather than sell-low, you are much better off holding onto Brown in hopes that he can stay healthy, gain trust of the coaching staff and that he can capitalize on the carries that he is likely to get in 2011.

Brown has a style that should have translated to the NFL by now.  It’s arguable that constant injury has or has not ultimately determined Brown’s current lack of production or whether Brown is simply better served as a role player and not a fantasy producer.  In either case, Brown is still young enough to have a noteworthy career, but it must start in 2011.

I love players with a good work ethic and character.  Combine that with the skill set needed to be successful and you have many of the ingredients for a productive fantasy player.  For myself, Brown is a worthy bet to eventually be a productive player in the NFL and worthy of the risk.  I would buy-low on Brown but would not give up significant existing fantasy production to do so.  If you have owners willing to sell-low on Brown, now is the time to act.  In redraft leagues, Brown makes a great risk-reward play prior to the 10th round and is a worthy selection in new dynasty leagues once your starting lineup has been secured.

The NFL road is paved by the young stars of the future and  littered with those that had potential but never panned out.  2011 is likely the year to find where on that road where Donald Brown belongs.   Where do you think that is?

jeff haverlack