28 Responses to “Inside the Numbers: Draft History – RBs”

  1. Hot nikkels says:

    Ive gotten some good feedback on a trade I made recently, acquiring Ray Rice. Gave up rookie/FA picks 1.2, 1.7, and Michael Bush. I needed/wanted another RB to go along with Foster, PT, and Lynch.

    I was trying to figure out if I was better keeping my picks and player and drafting whatever RB I feel was there after Ingram at 1.2. This article further makes me feel better about making the move and dealing the picks away.

    • freebird12 says:

      i would say fantastic deal. rice is in his prime and will stay on top for the next few years. 1.2 is a great pick and would nail you ingram, but rice is proven. 1.7 is a crap shoot, and bush is out at oakland and is an o.w.i. away from jail? so basically all you really gave up was say ingram at the 1.2 pick for rice? good deal.

  2. Kris Kapsner says:

    Thanks for the article Jeff. I can’t wait to see your similar breakdown of WRs. :)

  3. freebird12 says:

    i love this site. un-matched!!!!!!!!!! i’ve been playing fantasy football since 1990 and have been in the same 12 man- 3 division league from that first day. i am also in a 14 man no divisional layout. 2 years ago i got into my first dynasty style league. dynasty football is the ultimate high for all those die-hard fans that just can’t say goodbye to your season, because it never ends. you guys have the “gem” here at this site. i’ve recently discovered your home here and it’s now #1 on my favorites list and i’m just going wild to find some good football stimulation for my problem (as my wife calls it). thanks guys.

  4. Jackson says:

    this is great stuff! It certainly makes a great argument for taking Ingram/ 1st RB drafted over Green.

  5. Lung says:

    This article was expertly researched, written, and quite enjoyable to read.

    However, unless you are the owner of the 1.01 pick in your rookie draft, I’m not sure how useful the information is. That’s because the first RB selected in the first round of the NFL Draft is almost ALWAYS the 1.01 pick in dynasty league rookie drafts. Look at the last several years:

    2010 Ryan Mathews 1.12 San Diego
    2009 Knowshon Moreno 1.12 Denver
    2008 Darren McFadden 1.04 Oakland
    2007 Adrian Peterson 1.07 Minnesota
    2006 Reggie Bush 1.02 New Orleans
    2005 Ronnie Brown 1.02 Miami

    and so on.

    Basically, this article tells me that the first RB off the board in the NFL draft is going to be a fine fantasy producer, which is great for those with the 1.01 pick! Every manager drafting after that has about as good a chance of success by taking a running back OR a wide receiver OR (as your next article will surely show) a quarterback.

    Again, while this article contains some very good information, I think it only serves to reinforce to 1.01 pick owners that they will get a real difference maker RB. But to every one else holding the 1.02 to 1.12 picks, this article doesn’t really doesn’t help them that much.

    My $.02
    -Lung

    • bla says:

      yes, but it seems this year that there’s been a lot of support for drafting Green 1st overall. I looked at this as an argument for taking Ingram because of the history of RB’s being successful, but it still doesn’t settle the Green vs. Ingram debate.

    • DLF_Jeff says:

      True to an extent, but I also point out how successful other RBs have been not first off the board. 2nd RB off the board Productive+ player 50% of the time, last RB in the first round 40% of the time. Foray into the 2nd+ round and the next RB is productive+ only 20% of the time.

      When you compare this with other positions, primarily WR, you get a much clearer view of position vs. draft position vs. productivity. WR carries a much greater bust %.

      So, if you have, say pick 1.04 and are looking at Julio Jones vs. the 2nd RB off the board (just as an example), if you are a in a BPA scenario, the RB has the higher “hit” ratio.

    • ScottD says:

      Just to be fair, the first RB off the board last year was CJ Spiller. In ever dynasty draft I was involved in everyone skipped over him for Mathews (and rightfully so in my opinion). Spiller was in fact, the first rb in 2010…

      • DLF_Jeff says:

        Good catch … and it’s also likely in my opinion that if/when I do this exercise again this time next year, it’s likely that the numbers of the first back off the board will drop due to Spiller

  6. Ken says:

    You don’t think that Spiller will get a chance to show the potential he flashed in preseason last year? I didn’t think Jackson played well enough to keep him on the bench another year. Take out 2 good games agianst Detroit & Cincy, and he had 600yds & 3 tds.

    • DLF_Jeff says:

      No, I don’t. I’m not a fan of Spiller. He was a great college back but I just am not a fan of his style in the NFL. On the right team, he could be maximize what he brings to the table, but BUF is not that team. For the record, I’m not a big fan of Jackson either, but mostly because he’s one dimensional and also plays in BUF. Not to mention that he’s at that magic RB age.

  7. I have 1.1 and 1.4 picks in a ppr dynasty 14man keeper league draft, I know it all depends on where Ingram and green get drafted. I have chris johnson and michael turner, my w.r are not good dex mccluster, T.O. What would you reccomend me drafting as my 1st two draft picks?

    • DLF_Jeff says:

      Like you said, it may have everything to do with where Ingram gets drafted. Any chance of moving Turner for WRs or a stud WR?

      In your case, you may need to go after AJ Green and then take either Julio Jones or the next best RB at 1.04. Any chance of trading the 1.04 for a good WR?

    • DLF_Jeff says:

      I really dislike using at first pick for a WR. I’d even be looking to move 1.01 for a a top 6 WR if you can. If you can’t, then see what you can do to land a top 10 WR in trade. If that doesn’t pan out, go ahead and take Green. PPR league does make for a safer bet.

      • thanks again for responding, what u think of w.r mike williams of bucs, i was thinking turner for mike williams n owen daniels, sumn like that, i do like ingram with 1.1 pick, 1.4 pick i cud try dealing it for average w.r or go young and get julio, baldwin, or titus young, what you think?

  8. Cool Hand Luke says:

    I would look to acquire a player like MOJO for those picks and then try to flip Turner for a solid WR. Do you have any decent/good free agents out there?

    • DLF_Jeff says:

      You may want to reply to the actual post … may not be seen at the end. You replied as a new post.

    • free agent w.r are very slim, because its a 14man keeper dynasty league, so most of #1 w.r are kept, i do like aurrelious benn from bucs and mike williams from seatle which are still available, what u think of boldin? what u think of draftn l.b what round

  9. raidersfan77 says:

    if u end up using the picks i would address the wr position w both of the picks. i.e. AJ and julio. But they may take up to 2 years to catch on to the pro game. I do agree w/ the above poster LUKE on moving the picks for someone like MJD or Ray Rice. CJ2K and one of those two would pretty much carry u to the playoffs for the next 5 years. Then turner would be dispensible for a mid tier wr. you could target someone like vjax or bowe or someone else depending which teams in ur league need a rb. Just my 2 cents, good luck.

  10. freebird12 says:

    if you do the deal, remember your giving away all that youth for mjd? i’d keep the picks, add youth to your team. johnson and turner is a hell of a tandem i’d like to have. both are clear cut #1s not envolved with a committe? wrs are always easier to get thru freeagency then backs, thats where i would look first, and like rderfan77 said, use your picks for the young wrs. turner will have another good year this year as atlanta is poised to make a run. you can always move him next year, but i’d ride him this year, and build my wrs thru your picks and freeagency?

    • DLF_Jeff says:

      You may want to re-reply to the post but make sure to reply within the post of the one you are responding to. You replied as a new post and it may not be seen.

    • thanks again for reply, i still believe in keeping both 1.1, 1.4 picks im stuck on taking ingram first pick and add depth to my r.b pos. and planning to take w.r with 1.4 and so on with my nex 2 picks to build my w.r depth, id figur after my 1.4 pick id be drafting experienced free agent w.r. i am waiting til draft day to see where ingram, green,jones do end up and answer back after that.

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