57 Responses to “2011 Draft – First Look (Repost)”

  1. highballers says:

    Good start. Thanks, Jeff. Look. For Locker in the top 3 QBs and LeShoure to get more attention.

  2. Misfit74 says:

    The RB group could really be deep this year depending on which underclassmen declare. There are several backs I’d take over Kendall Hunter including Quizz Rodgers, LaMichael James, Shane Vereen, and Ryan Williams.

    It’s still early and I like this as a first look. There’s a long way to go before the dust settles and the prospect picture becomes clearer.

    • DLF JeffH says:

      I could make a case for those backs as well, especially LaMichael James. But I don’t think James actually translates all that well to the NFL, I just don’t think he’s big enough or going to be durable enough. For smaller backs, I need something to stand out about them. Hunter has big thighs, a little like MJD. I’ll reserve my final opinion until his combine performance where I can get a better look but as of now, I have him above James and Quizz. Ryan Williams was almost my #4 or #5 but I’m just not sold on him and have learned to trust my instincts.

  3. rob s says:

    Great start..any shot of seeing a mini version of things on TE’s?

    Thus far has to be Kyle Rudolph (if regains health )and a Drake Dunsmore and Lance Kendricks??

    I owe these guesses strictly to college FF as I have not done much homework for 2011 rookie TEs/

    I also know none will make 1st round ff draft status but I was curious to hear if there is another Gates or Gonzo out there.

    Thanks Jeff.

    great stuff as usual.

  4. Chad says:

    Good stuff, can’t wait until the draft since I’m out in both FF leagues.
    I have six 1st in 2011 (1.2,1.4,1.5,1.8, so far) and need to rebuild my RB core.
    Thanks!

    • DLF JeffH says:

      Don’t forget that that you can trade those picks ahead of the draft for current productive younger players. No reason to roll the dice with every pick when rising young players may be on the block of other rebuilding teams.

      • Chad says:

        Yeah usually I will trade the later 1st and fall back into the 2nd round and pick up a 1st next year. I need the 1.2,1.4,1.5 for now b/c my best RB is BJGE.
        I got young talent in CJ Spiller, Donald Brown, Hardesty, Starks.
        We shall see!

  5. Tim says:

    No love for Justin Blackmon? Or was he left off because he’s a draft eligible sophomore?

    • DLF JeffH says:

      Blackmon is my #6 right now and I wouldn’t be surprised if he cracks the top 5 on my list before the draft.

      • Palmer says:

        So has he cracked the Top 5 now?

        • DLF_Jeff says:

          He’s probably going to move up to 3-5 somewhere. I have yet to finish my research on competition level, etc. It’s also possible that I won’t move him until after all the declarations are in and the combine is completed. I want to see his “official” measurements first. He’s put together as good as a season as just about anyone ever has. Ridiculous numbers.

  6. John says:

    I have the 1.1 pick and the 2.1 pick and depending on what respective teams they go to I’m thinking Mark Ingram and Cam Newton.

    I love scrambling QBs.

    Except for VY he’s been such a dissapointment.

    • DLF JeffH says:

      I don’t think Newton is going to last to 2.01 in most drafts. I think there’s going to be too much intrigue around him at the 1.08+ area for him to drop past 1.10 (or 1.12 in a 12 team league).

      But it’s a relatively deep year for QBs so it could happen if some are scared off by recent mobile QB flops.

  7. Cyrus says:

    Like the fact that you are writing about it this early, as I am looking forward to the draft. I have four first round picks, one of them 1.01, and have been really excited thinking about the WR’s that I can have with my other ones.

    I am surprised that you omitted LaMichael James from your list, however. I think that he is the #2 RB if he comes out, which he should… and if he ends up in a place like GB, I would be very tempted to draft him over Ingram with my #1 pick.

    It will be a difficult decision… I took Moreno with the #1 pick a year ago, and he has finally turned it on. I feel like RB’s are inherently more valuable than WR, but AJ Green will definitely be a stud, whereas rookie RB’s are hit or miss.

    • DLF JeffH says:

      You just can’t draft smallish, slight, backs like James that highly … they’ll break your heart. Hunter is smallish as well but built very differently. I see James much like I see Justin Forsett. I do like his vision though. But no way I take him over most of those other listed RBs on my list, unless the drafted situation is just too good to pass on

      • Cyrus says:

        Interesting. I don’t know myself, I don’t typically scout players. Will be interesting to see how he compares at the combine though.

        I’m a bit annoyed with my 1st rounders– I had traded Fitz for two of them that ended up being the #11 and #12 picks. From the #5 and #6 seeds! My pick ended up #9, so now I have three late first rounders, and no idea what to do. Also have the 2.03, so I am hoping to trade up– the 1.03 pick is for sale, how many picks would you give up to get it?

        • DLF_Jeff says:

          It’s tough because without knowing where players are going, that 1.03 can be far less valuable than even 1.02. Just don’t play desperate and see what you can stir up

  8. ScottD says:

    The first RB taken is among the most successful in terms on hit rates in a dynasty league. The last 9 were William Green, Willis McGahee, Stephen Jackson, Ronnie Brown, Reggie Bush , Adrian Peterson, Darren McFadden, Knowshon Moreno and Spiller (you could argue Mathewws as we all knew Spiller was a multi-purpose guy rather than a pure RB).

    Compare to 1st WR – Roy Williams, Charles Rogers, Larry Fitzgerald, Troy Williamson, Santonio Holmes, Calvin Johnson, Donnie Avery (2nd round pick), Darrius Heyward-Bey (ok, it’s really Michael Crabtree) and DeMarius Thomas. Much more bust potential in the WRs.

    There’s clearly a slotting impact. WR who go top 5 rarely bust (Charles Rogers being the obvious exception) but that’s true of most top 5 picks.

    • DLF JeffH says:

      Well Scott, you know my take and my “Inside the Numbers” articles that I write about the WR position. They are truly a crap shoot outside of the top 5 NFL draft selections. If a receiver goes in the top 5 NFL selections, he’s got a great shot at being a good/great player. Outside of the top 5, almost regardless of talent, the hit rate drops precipitously. Yet, every year I get flamed on not ranking WRs higher.

    • Kris Kapsner says:

      Troy Williamson was the 2nd WR taken that draft. Braylon Edwards went #3 overall that year and Williamson went #7. Just thought I’d point that one out for you.

      Your points are fair though, drafting early RBs is safer than drafting early WRs in fantasy rookie drafts.

      • Brian says:

        this is oh so true. two years back i drafted crabtree at the 1.02 slot and got britt at 2.08, i’m much more excited about britt these days. then this year i grabbed williams at 3.08 and he was gold. i have made it part of my strategy to trade out of spots when a WR is the obvious selection, i traded away from tate this year and couldn’t be happier as i got williams then gresham with the pick 3 after tate. i encourage everyone to look at email drafting with their rookie drafts as it makes these types of deals possible.

        • RobbyRobDU says:

          Mike Williams went 2.05 in our 16 team dynasty league rookie draft, you got a STEAL! I was going to go him at 2.06 and Jimmy Graham at 2.08, ended up going Graham, Colt McCoy, and with 2 starting QBs that’s value right there!

          I say target players you love, especially in good situations. I personally think Golden will be a very good player, the playoffs will be fun in watching some young guys (personally the NO backfield, Tate, Thomas Clayton Rb for NE, Indy Rb situation, Packers RB situation, so many great story lines and potential breakouts, Shonn Greene AGAIN!)

          I’d hold on to Crabtree as well, he is an elite talent.

  9. johnathan saxton says:

    What do you think it would take for you to deal 1.01? And for a seriously rebuilding team, is it worth trading for something like 1.07 and 1.10? The team needs dire RB help, so I’m not sure if those picks would get me studs as much as a Green or Ingram would.

    • Chad says:

      I wouldn’t trade the 1.1 for 1.7 and 1.10, your falling to far back. after the 1.3 in next years draft you start rolling the dice on players IMO.
      Take Ingram or AJ…

  10. Josh says:

    I did not go to Boise St, but I’d think Kellen Moore might crack that top 5 QB…

    • Josh says:

      that said..he is 5 ft 10 right? so maybe thats the reason

    • DLF_Jeff says:

      Moore is a good talent but he’s going to measure in short and very few do well at that height. We’ll have to wait and see his measurements before I can rank him any higher.

  11. Paradis says:

    I clapped when I saw Thomas ranked #2 there. I’m totally with you and think he’s got a chance (for fantasy managers) to be a beast.

    I don’t like your WR rankings though. A different Jones shows up every week. Julio’s either gonna get whipped into shape or be ran out of the league within 2 years. Its all about coaching with that guy.

    I’m all about Floyd. I watched alot of tape on him, and the kid is one of the special players who just “makes a play” at any cost. He goes after the ball in a way that translates to NFL success. Clearly Green is the superior talent, but often with guys like Green, there so much volatility in those high potential players- that they are risky in themselves. Floyd is the perfect combo package of skill, talent, and tailored expectations to bring him along.

    …that and I have Calvin Johnson tattoo on my ass, so naturally i’m in love with Baldwin. Lock to be taken in rnd #1, if for no other reason than coaches are tired of being burned by 6’5-sub 4.50 WRs and take him based on potential alone.

  12. Dext says:

    this is a little off topic but in a ppr league who would you target if you wanted to deal a high 1st round rookie pick like 1.1 or 1.2? as in current players.

    • Chad says:

      Go as high as you can, see what teams has 1-2 great players and target them.
      If a RB starved team is out there target them too, I always like to trade back and pickup players/picks in return.
      Good Luck!

    • DLF JeffH says:

      Really all depends on team need, but I’d make sure it was a young top player within his position. If I was looking at a WR, I’d be looking at players such as Nicks or maybe even Fitzgerald (since many are down on him) … maybe even a Desean Jackson although I don’t value him that highly. In the RB space I look at names such as Ryan Mathews (if the owner is down on him), Jamal Charles, Jonathan Stewart.

      You have to identify the needs on your team and then go after the top 5-7 players in each position that can add value to your team. nothing wrong with trading back and picking up two first rounders too … especially in this draft.

  13. Chad says:

    So if you had my team, who would you draft (assuming underclassmen declared)?

    12 team, 25 player dynasty league .5 ppr start 1 qb, 2-3 rb, 3-4 wr, 1 flex (1 rb,wr,te), 1 k, 1 def

    QB: Brees NO, Brady NE, John Skelton ARI
    RB: BJGE NE, CJ Spiller BUF, Harrison PHI, Hardesty CLE, D. Brown IND, K. Smith DET, Goodson CAR, James Starks GB, Danny Ware NYG
    WR: Andre3000 HOU, Calvin DET, White ATL, Fitzgerald ARI, Eric Decker DEN, Golden SEA
    TE: Hernandez NE, Zach OAK, Graham NO
    K: Stephen NE, Hartley NO
    DEF: SD

    1.2, 1.4, 1.5, 1.8, 1.10, 1.11, 2.5

    • DLF_Jeff says:

      Too soon to tell really Chad. Those are some nice picks for sure. I’d definitely see what it would take to get the 1.01 but I wouldn’t give up the farm for it. You’ve got some potential RBs on your roster but no bell cow. You’re stacked at WR for sure and I wouldn’t mess with your TE or WR position.

      What might be best to do for you is to trade the picks for productive younger backs. See what it might take to get a Chris Johnson coming off a disappointing year, or LeSean McCoy.

      I honestly don’t know how you assembled that lineup of yours. There’s just no reason to risk the draft looking for RBs. Use the picks to trade into backs that are already proven.

      • Chad says:

        It’s my 4th year with this dynasty league. Alot of trading, some good ones and some bad ones. I went in last year knowing I needed to rebuild my RB core this year, so that’s where all the picks came into play.

        I’m really the only owner that likes draft picks, so trading them for proven players will be hard. The guy at 1.1 will likely take AJ Green b/c he is 4 deep at RB (adp, foster, blount and pt) and only jennings and rice at wr.

        Thanks for the advice!

        • ScottD says:

          Don’t be afraid to use your picks in combination with one of your outstanding WR to get a elite RB.

        • DLF_Jeff says:

          Well … if Ingram is there at 1.02 that’s HUGE for you. But as Scott has said just ahead of me, don’t be afraid to do combos of players and picks to get studs. I probably wouldn’t trade one of your WRs … their just too young and studly and you’re in a PPR league. I’d still look to sell out those picks for a big time stud RB if you can or even two very good ones. You’re set!

        • Chad says:

          Right now I’m in talks with the MJD owner and I have offered BJGE and 1.8,1.10 for MJD.
          I upgrade at RB and still get to keep my top 3 picks….

    • Kris Kapsner says:

      With this roster you should trade all of your picks away for immediate RB help and then win some championships over the next few years.

      Rookie picks are a coin flip. There are still plenty of people who think otherwise.

      Trade those picks. You can probably trade combination’s of them away to get a couple of RBs in the group of top young guys like Charles, Chris Johnson, MJD, Rice, etcetera. Do that. Do become enamored with your picks. Let others do that. You have the QBs, WRs and TEs to carry you into championships with some decent RBs, let alone elite guys like you could get with those picks most likely.

      • RobbyRobDU says:

        Julio Jones is at least the #2 on this list, he was the best athelete coming nito College and impressed on a team that NEVER passes the ball and a weak armed QB. STUD.

        I wold hate to have the first overall pick this year, awful RB class, and Luck returning, BRUTAL!!
        With Luck in I can see Green, Mallet, or even Ingram going Second, all of you have him as a no brainer 1st overall, but Ingram is as weak a top RB in a WEAK class as I can remember.

        These Dynasty leagues need to start moving to 2 QB and 2 TE, otherwise both positions are extremely undervalued, I also like 2 DEF….12 team league wouldn;t even be THAT big of a deal…..

        Personally, unless RB need is HUGE my picks would be:

        Green, Julio, Mallet, Ingram/Locker, Murray, Gabbert,R. Williams,Hankerson, Blackmon, Newton – All pending actual draft of course.

  14. NorthParkSasquatch says:

    In a non ppr 12 team each team keeps 12 players league my roster looks like:
    QB- Romo, Flacco (Start 1)
    RB- L.Blount, J.Stewart, P.Thomas, D.Woodhead, B.Tate (Start 3)
    WR- V.Jackson, D.Bryant, S.Rice, S.Johnson (Start 3)
    TE- J.Gresham (Start 1)
    other starting positions are one flex, one kicker, one DE/ST

    I have 1.1, 1.3, 1.8, 2.1, and 2.2 of the coming draft. I started my rebuilding phase in the middle of last year once some of my veterans got hurt and others started slowing down. I traded most of them away for draft picks and young players. Should I stick with the draft picks (hoping to catch a gem in what looks to be a weak class) and continue my rebuilding phase or trade them for some veterans that could help my team? I was hoping to get either one great back and decent receiver or 2 decent backs with the 1.1 and 1.3 but so far it looks like that’s not going to happen. what are your thoughts?

    Thanks!

    • DLF_Jeff says:

      You have a pretty good looking young team. I’d probably see what you can get in the way of KNOWN younger productive players from teams that won’t be competing that have studs on their rosters. Historically, the #1 pick in fantasy does pretty well and adding Ingram to your roster would be nice as long as he goes to a decent situation. If AJ Green falls to 1.3, adding Ingram and Green would be VERY nice. So unless you can get a top 8 WR or so, I’d hang on to see where Green goes. This is a deep year for WRs but I’d probably move those picks after 1.3 for proven production.

      • NorthParkSasquatch says:

        I was recently offered this trade:
        MJD, G.Jennings, and the 1.10 pick FOR L.Blount, D.Bryant, and the 1.3 & 2.1 picks.

        What do you think? It looks good on paper but it takes away from my stay young to rebuild phase and there are a few things that worry me. I’m scared of MJD’s knees and how much R.Jennings will take away from him next year. Also, G.Jennings had a huge year but that was after J.Finley got hurt. When Finley was in there Jennings didn’t get near as many targets and I worry that will happen again next year.

        • DLF_Jeff says:

          I share your concern. I’m not as high on Blount as others, but he’s starting now and looks like a young Jacobs … he’ll be good enough for a while. Bryant is a young stud in my mind. Maybe not as good as Jennings for a bit, but good enough to bank on. MJD is still elite but falling. I just don’t know that you need to do that. You could and no one would say anything but the added 1.3 thrown is a relatively high player that will keep your team young. If that 1.3 turns into AJ Green or Ingram, it overweights the trade against you.

        • NorthParkSasquatch says:

          Thanks for the advice…
          I will probably go with Ingram with 1.1 depending on situations. I believe the team drafting 1.2 will take Green. I don’t see another back to take 1.3 and I think the 3rd pick has more value in a trade than the value of Julio.

  15. NorthParkSasquatch says:

    This is a different league…Non ppr 12 team each team keeps 10 players.
    My 10 keepers A.Rodgers, J.Freeman, F.Gore, P.Hillis, L.Blount, C.Benson, R.White, H.Nicks, G.Jennings, and M.Williams(SEA).

    I was recently offered this trade: P.Hillis, R.White, and H.Nicks FOR A.Peterson, M.Williams(TB), and J.Finley.

    What are your thoughts on that one?

    Thank you guys for answering all the tough questions that helped me build 3 great teams over the last few years. Looking forward to a fun offseason and next year.

    • DLF_Jeff says:

      Being non-ppr, I do value Peterson enough to say that deal looks okay for you. Nicks and White are a lot to give up to only get back Williams who is a rookie and Finley who is a question mark (but I believe he’s worth the risk). To me, this trade hinges on what you feel Hillis will be. If you believe that he’ll produce to a similar level, then you can’t make that trade as Hillis and Peterson are too even. If you feel that there will be a sizable drop off, you could do it.

      For me, it depends on how you finished. If you finished well, don’t change the recipe. If Hillis does perform, you’re golden. But Having Peterson, Gore and Blount is a nice backfield for you. Williams, Jennings and Williams are capable, but not stellar.

      I lean slight toward making that trade ONLY because it’s non PPR. But always check to see if you can modify it a bit, perhaps trading away Williams instead of White or Nicks just to see.

      • NorthParkSasquatch says:

        I did finish very well winning the superbowl and first overall points. But I feel whatever coach M.Holgrem hires will install a west coast offense. I believe that will hurt the value of Hillis. Thoughts?

        I know two stud wide outs are alot to give up in one trade but getting a top TE and M.Williams along with the best back in the league really gives my team alot of options. I like Williams on a young up and coming offense and Finley is a beast when he is in there.

  16. tripleaaaron says:

    You forgot Green Bay in the Poll? I could see leaving out Seattle or KC, but not Green Bay.

    • DLF_Jeff says:

      Yeah we did. Rather than fix it now, we just went ahead and petitioned the NFL to eliminate GB from the playoffs. We’ve yet to hear back though. :)

  17. Tod says:

    32 team league

    My team is obviously rebuilding but I do have the first and third pick in the draft and was wondering if I should keep them or trade them. Quarterbacks are like gold seeing as how there are 32 teams in the league and only 32 starting quarterbacks.

    Here is what my roster looks like:

    Qb: Josh Freeman
    Rb: Aaron Brown(Det), Tashard Choice, Javarris James, Deji Karim, and Joe Mcknight
    Wr: Brandon Gibson, Mardy Gilyard, and Taylor Price
    Te: Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta
    K:no kicker at the moment
    It is also IDP but I’ve got a lot of young depth that I am satisfied with there.

    I have been thinking I would take AJ Green with the first pick more than likely than probably a quarterback that I can trade further down the road. Also had an offer for Carson Palmer and Ryan Matthews for Josh Freeman, if Luck had declared I probably would have pulled the trigger on that but I’m not sold on any of the other QBs and Freeman is going to be really good.

    • DLF_Jeff says:

      I don’t necessarily think Freeman IS going to be really good but I think he’ll be top 12 or good enough. I’d prefer to see you take Ingram if he goes to a good situation and trade the 1.03 for a good WR. WRs are far too hard to predict out of college. You won’t know if Green is Charles Rogers or Calvin Johnson for a couple of years.

  18. Justin says:

    I am in a 20 team Dynasty League and Finished 8th. I have Fitzgerald and Steven Jackson. I have been offered a 1st and 2nd round pick from another manager (15th and 35th) and both his 1st and 2nd round picks for next year. Should I make a move on this? I hate to give up both guys, but I like that I can package several picks together to hopefully get other talent.

    PS this will be my second year in the Dynasty League, and this is the Leagues 2nd year.

    • DLF_Jeff says:

      I couldn’t do that. Too much up in the air with draft picks and while Fitz had a down year and Jackson is getting older, their still pretty solid … both of them. Fitz is going to be good for another 8 years and Jackson probably has at least another 3. If picks were turned into certain production, I could make a case for it, but they’re terrible in the way of guarantees.

      If you finished 8th, you are doing too badly and Fitz had that down year. Give it another year to see what you can accomplish.

  19. Billy says:

    32 team non ppr league. I’ve been offered the 6th pick in our rookie draft + Fitzgerald for Gore. RB’s are a commodity… so I wouldn’t do Gore for Fitz, but the 6 makes it doable to me… throw in the fact that Fitz and Gore are the same age and I would imagine Fitz stays productive longer, and it gives me an itchy trigger finger. I want to trade Gore while I can still get value out of him and I’m worried about keeping him too long.

    Current lineup-
    Bradford
    Gore/B. Scott/McGahee/A. Dixon
    Crabtree/Maclin
    V. Davis

    I know that the guy with the 3rd pick will take a QB, so there are 4 spots ahead of me that will most likely take a rb/wr.

    Do you think the 2nd or 3rd best RB/WR prospect+Fitz is worth Gore?

    • DLF JeffH says:

      Well, if you’re wanting to get rid of Gore, this is the year to do it. Non PPR reduces Fitz’s value but he will be a productive WR for the next 6-8 years in my book.

      I like your WRs and between Crabtree, Maclin and Fitz, with VD at TE, you’re set at receiver. You have an outside shot at a starter in Scott. I’ve liked what I’ve seen from him but word is that CIN brass is not convinced he’s an every down back. Bradford is a weak QB starter at this point but he fits with your young team. I worry about the RBs on your team but I wouldn’t be surprised if Gore doesn’t finish this next year on the field.

      Realize too that this is not a strong draft but the extra pick does provide an opportunity for a an eventual impact player.

      I’d make the trade.

  20. Dan says:

    Now I lay me down to sleep, AJ Green from Georgia I would ever keep…McCoy to Greene has a beautiful ring to it…is it draft time yet?

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