Pre-Draft Blog

4/19/10

3 Days and counting….

As you have come to expect from us, I will be posting our actual 2010 Rookie and Free Agent Draft for our main dynasty league as it unfolds.  This isn’t a mock draft and represents the actual picks as they occur.  Time between picks may be a bit longer than you would like as we don’t really have a time limit in place but picks normally are made relatively quickly.

Stay tuned … and be sure to join us on draft day in the DLF Chat Room.  While you are waiting, sign up on the forums and get involved.

4/14/10

Time to turn our attention to the WRs.

I’m not going to waste your time here.  If you’ve read my analysis of the last 10 years of the NFL draft with how it relates to fantasy production, you know that the WRs that you are looking for are those that are taken in the top 6 picks of the NFL draft.  Do that, and you have a 50/50 chance at a dynasty stud.  Outside of that, you’re rolling dice in a losing game.

But that said, sometimes you have to draft a WR or you’re in that area of the draft (#8-#12) where WRs start coming off the board.  Have a hole to fill?  Have great depth and looking for the next Marques Colston or Greg Jennings?  …or simply just going best player available (BPS) in your system?  Let me clue you in using my secret rating system for WRs to help give you a leg up come draft day.

First, let me say one thing about drafting WRs … and especially, rating rookies.  You must use EVERY piece of information at your disposal.  Doing anything less is simply being too two dimensional.  This means physicality, college production and competition, height/weight/bulk, system, character, work ethic, etc. etc.  Check the DLF forum for the discussion on Dez Bryant for a great spectrum of thoughts and value.  You’ll see that many value based on tape/game talent alone while others, including myself, look far beyond college production and size into such areas as work ethic and character towards making sure that the pick is not wasted.  WRs simply do not pay off enough to make the selection without consideration of all factors, at least in my opinion.

I would much rather have a physcial specimen, raw talent and character over simply raw talent.  Any reduction, for any reason, including character or work ethic, drops a player’s rating on my board.  If it is a player at the WR position, that will affect him to a greater degree than other positions simply because WRs are much harder to project in the NFL.  And make no mistake that there is a big difference between “character” and “work ethic.”  Let’s move onto the rankings for the 2010 rookies:

Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State
6’2″ 225 4.52

I got myself in hot water on the DLF boards talking about Bryant’s Character and/or work ethic issues.  While Bryant is clearly the best talent at the position, I will stand behind my assessment that he is also a significant risk.  Character wise, while there are issues, I do not see this as Bryant’s primary risk.  His work ethic and life choices however are significant enough for me to question his ability to transition into the NFL.  He simply does not have the maturity to make the jump without considerable difficulty.  The NFL is far more than a playpen for physical freakish specimens.  It is an exercise in maturation, self discipline, decision making and work ethic.  Any deficit in any of these areas will slow the integration process.  Bryant’s mental state and decision making are suspect enough for me to likely drop him out of my top 5 rookies, depending on his draft situation.  That is not to say that I would not draft him in the top 5.  Talent alone, he is a top 2 player.  But, as some have compared him to Calvin Johnson, I will aggressively argue that they are not remotely similar many areas.

My take:  Bryant will most likely come off the board in fantasy at picks 2-5, depending on team need.  My guess is, due to talent alone, Bryant will be off the board at #3 in most situations.  His pure talent is impossible to ignore.  If he goes to a good situation with established team leadership and a mentor, the sky is the limit for this talented player.  If he doesn’t, pain awaits the coach who drafts him.  But, if you are drafting a WR, you simply cannot pass him up at any position in the draft where he is available.

Demaryius Thomas, Georgia Tech
6’3 1/4″ 224 4.50

Thomas is an enigma.  He plays much faster than his timed speed and reminds me a lot of T.O. in his prime.  Thomas has a very quick first step and the speed and strength combination to make a quick slant or out a big gain.  Thomas played in Techs run-first option offense and still assembled a nice highlight reel, but failed to produce eye popping numbers.  You can’t discount his NFL body, speed and big play ability … would just be nice to have seen more of it.

My take:  Thomas simply isn’t polished.  He rounds off his routes, doesn’t understand how to gain separation and doesn’t have elite speed.  But what he does have is big hands, good leaping ability and enough physicality to be a difference maker in the NFL.  Thomas doesn’t project to be one of those WRs that makes an immediate impact, but he is hard working kid, has a nose for the ball and has that “it” factor.  He is extremely risky as a pick in the top 8-9 selections of your rookie draft, but if you are content to get the second WR off the board, Thomas is worthy of consideration.  If you have good WR depth, he will fit your team.  If you need serious WR help or depth, you’ll want to focus on our next WR.

Arrelious Benn, Illinois
6’1″ 219 4.53

Benn didn’t run as well as I expected.  He doesn’t leap off the tape for any one particular trait in his game, but he is a solid prospect that may be the most polished receiver in this draft.  Looking at tape, he is a better route runner than many give him credit for.  He did not run as I expected him to but he is a competitive kid, with a physical presence and very good ball skills.

My take:  Benn projects highly in the NFL because of his overall skill set.  I believe he is the most pro ready prospect when considering work ethic, intangibles, physical size and play-making ability.  I expect he has a 40% chance of being the second WR off your rookie draft board after Demaryius Thomas, but a good starting situation will increase his stock over that of Thomas.  He’s your safest draft day WR.  Focus on him if you can’t get Bryant and you need a difference maker without the risk of Thomas.

Golden Tate, Notre Dame
5’10 1/4″ 199 4.42

Tate has fallen on my draft board of late, but not so much because of anything he has done as much as what others represent.  Tate measured in smaller than I expected and plays faster than his, already good, 4.42 40.  Tate is very quick, both in the open field and out of his breaks.  He is not a pure hands catcher like I prefer to see, but few balls reach the ground when he receives a target.  His balls skills are excellent and he plays taller than his size.  Still, much like shorter running backs, smallish WRs have a hard time having consistent impact in the NFL.

My take:  Tate is a teens draft pick in your fantasy draft, in my opinion.  He’s not a player that you are thrilled to get, but much like DeSean Jackson, he’s a player that could well outplay his drafted position.  Unlike many of the other WRs on the list, Tate has had consistent performance over the previous two years.  Again, he’s not a sexy pick, but he could easily represent early fantasy production in the right system.

Brandon LaFell, Lousiana State
6’2 1/2″ 2.11 4.60

Another receiver falling down my draft board.  I was very disappointed with LaFells timed speed but I didn’t expect him to run a 4.45 either.  LaFell is a physical, hard nosed, working class player who plays with a chip on his shoulder.  He reminds me, in play style, of Anquan Boldin.  He never eclipsed 1,000 yards in a season but did compile 19 TDs in his final two years.  I just don’t believe he is dynamic enough to be an early starter in the NFL and his game at the next level leaves a bit to be desired.

My take:  LaFell is the classic early third round receiver in my book, much like Greg Jennings or Earl Bennet was.  A good receiver that doesn’t do anything great, but many things well, will largely be defined by their drafted situation.  Rookie wise, he reminds me of Early Doucet in game style.  Good, but not great.

We’ll finish up shortly …..

4/3/10

Now the real work begins ….

Even a first year dynasty coach can rank most higher tier rookie RBs. Generally speaking, rookie RBs are fantasy drafted in much the same order that they are drafted in the NFL. If you are outside the top 3-4 picks in your fantasy draft, however, you need to rely on good research, an objective view and sometimes a pair of football sized jewels to follow your due diligence … even though it may not mesh with popular opinion. Championships can be won and lost based on a single player in certain circumstances, but to create a true dynasty, you need multiple players spanning multiple years. And there is certainly required work and due diligence if you are to develop a competitive team or a true dynasty through picks in the second half, or bottom third, of the first round in your fantasy draft every year.

Quite simply put, you MUST have the conviction in your rating system to not follow common logic and to look deeper for the gems each and every year, while steering clear of those that are fool’s gold. Use every piece of available information towards determining whether the likelihood of the selection will be a bust, a super-star or somewhere in between. In fact, our forums have been a good source for this type of discussion. You’ll find as many different ranking systems as you will players, but when you have a system that works, stay true to yourself and use it to your advantage. Not every pick will pan out and your goal should be to maximize your success rate. When you find that your views differ from the majority, you are either a fool or a prophet. The determining factor will be whether or not you have rings on your fingers.

With that diatribe out of the way, let’s get down to those RBs in this year’s draft that you will likely be looking at with picks in the 7+ range. There’s a lot to choose from and a fair amount to consider.

Montarrio Hardesty, Tennessee
5’11 ¾” 225 4.49

Hardesty has moved up in my rankings in the last couple of days. I’ve watched extra tape on him, for the second time, and there is something very intriguing about his game. It could just be that he has that perfect NFL body type and a decent, not spectacular, college resume’. Hardesty reminds me a little of Ryan Matthews but without the production or injury history. While he has been hobbled with numerous smaller injuries, he hasn’t had a serious injury since 2005 when he tore his ACL. He only started this past year for the Vols and responded with good production. Not overly dynamic, Hardesty gets through holes with decent attack and good vision. He possesses a tremendous spin move that shows just how agile he really is. He’s primarily a one-cut-and-go back. I would like to see a bit more toughness out of Hardesty as he is not one that runs to his level of strength or bulk. He’s a good a character player, with a good work ethic and could be a very productive back in the right system.

My take: I like Hardesty. Where some players have my gut (something that I have learned to trust) screaming at me to stay away, Hardesty is invoking the opposite reaction. Backs in this range have a long history of being drafted and never being heard from again so getting one that can do a little of everything, in a good NFL sized package, helps increase your odds of success. In a system such as WAS, HOU, GB, SEA, SD or MIA, he would have good upside potential. If drafted behind a younger starting RB or a team with a capable stable of backs such as MIN, N.O., NYG, DAL, PHI and ARI, I don’t believe he is dynamic enough to compete for a greater number of carries. Watch his drafted situation and draft accordingly.

Joe McKnight, USC
5’11 3/8” 198 4.47

Hardesty was moved up my sheet at McKnight’s expense. McKnight is one of those backs that I followed from the prep ranks that never produced to my, or most others’, expectations. Lightning quick and agile, McKnight looked a lot like Reggie Bush before hitting the field. True to form, McKnight is fast, very agile and can change directions with ease. He is not a between-the-tackles back unless there are no defenders between those tackles. Not exceptionally tough or aggressive, McKnight’s game is built upon speed and space. I do like his hands out of the backfield and after his speed, he does show incredible patience, which is rare for a back of his style. McKnight also plays faster than his timed speed and when looking at his ypc average, it’s tough not to be impressed. But you also must factor in that McKnight wasn’t a carry-the-load back for USC and his strengths were maximized.

My take: I was a bit alarmed at McKnight’s slower than expected 40 at the combine. Combine that with his poor performance at his pro day and it left me questioning his preparation, which is not something you want to have in a player in the spotlight preparing for the most important day in his professional life. McKnight is a dynamic back with the skills to match, but doesn’t possess enough to be considered a work-horse until proven otherwise. To his credit, he could be compared to Jamaal Charles, a player of similar build and skill set. In the right situation with the proper development, McKnight could be successful. Certainly enough risk-reward at the 9-12 range in rookie drafts.

Anthony Dixon, Mississippi State
6’0 ¾” 233 4.68

Make no mistake, Dixon is not a burner. If Dixon were to run a 4.50, he would be a border line first round pick in the mold of a faster Beanie Wells. A work horse for Mississippie State, Dixon is a punishing and tough runner with decent vision and great balance. Excels in the power running game but has just enough agility and balance to not be single dimensional. Dixon doesn’t have the loose hips or the low to the ground style that allows for that dynamic tag, but he is a very effective power runner+ that projects well at the next level. There’s a lot to like about Dixon’s work-horse mentality, pain tolerance and his desire to carry the load. He has a fair number of miles (900+ carries) on his legs which is concerning for a back of his size, but he has shown the ability to be durable and be more productive for each of the last three years.

My take: In the right situation, I could see Dixon going as early as #8 or as late as #14, which is a pretty big range. Dixon isn’t dynamic enough to create his own starting situation nor steal a role from situations with an established backfield. That’s not to say that he couldn’t be a fine producer in situations such as HOU, SD, PHI, SEA or other spots with a good starting O-line. Dixon is adequate in both blocking and out of the backfield in the flat and, as I said previously, he is not single dimensional in his game … which should provide for more opportunities. I love his toughness and mentality, especially with the ball in his hands. He has a passion for the tough yards and is willing in all situations. If I were to make an educated guess, I see Dixon going off the board at 11 or 12 in your fantasy draft. Adjust accordingly if his drafted situation warrants it.

James Starks, Buffalo
6’2 1/8” 218 4.50

Starks is an interesting and intriguing specimen. A tall back with great power, decent hips and better than average speed, Starks was a 3-year work horse starter for Buffalo before missing the 2009 season with a torn labrum. While never averaging more than 4.9 ypc, Starks is a dynamic presence in that he has a rare blend of power, speed and hands … amassing over 100 receptions over his 3 years, 93 of them in the last two played years. Starks could be moved to wide-receiver in the right system but it is more likely that he is drafted in a RB role to a team with an established back field. He would seemingly thrive in a zone blocking scheme which requires a quick read recognition and speed through the hole. His injury history does not threaten his draft stock in any other way than the missed year of production … which certainly won’t raise his stock. That said, due his sheer number of carries, his fresh legs could pay dividends.

My take: Starks is, indeed, intriguing. While not exceedingly elusive or quick, he has enough agility to get into and out of his cuts cleanly, with good power and is not an easy tackle. His hands are extremely soft and he excels in the flat. In each draft, there are 2nd , 3rd and 4th round (fantasy draft wise) prospects that have the ability to become excellent fantasy producers due to the combination of physical, character and production factors. Starks is in this mold and astute fantasy coaches will be watching his drafted situation closely. Starks is most likely a 3rd round fantasy selection but could possible go in the high teens given a good situation.

Dexter McCluster, Ole Miss
5’8 ¾” 172 4.58

In second half of your receiver grouping, here’s your wildcard. Fantasy coaches after pick #9 will start weighing the options of McCluster, an undersized dynamic big play threat from Old Miss. McCluster is the definition of the saying that you can measure a player’s height, but not his heart. McCluster is dynamic in every definition of the word and when he gets the ball in his hands, things happen. From his acceleration, to his change of direction to his work ethic and great hands, McCluster is worthy of consideration at every pick north of 9 by a coach who understands what McCluster isn’t, a carry the load RB. McCluster’s balance sheet comes down to the argument of size vs. potential. Each coach will need to determine how where you fall on that argument. If you believe that good backs are found at all sizes, McCluster will most likely warrant a pick at the bottom of the first or top of the 2nd round. If you feel that there are few exceptions to the rule, then you may have a hard time using your pick for a chance at the lottery. I won’t go on and on here about his potential because it is significant … but is sure to be somewhat limited by his size.

My take: I was disappointed with McCluster’s timed speed. However, looking at tape it is very obvious that he plays at a level much faster than any straight-line time would suggest. I’ve heard some make the argument that MJD is also a small back and that McCluster is in the same mold. MJD is not a small back … but he is a short(er) back. I recall MJD’s combine workout far more than any other player’s in recent history. While many don’t believe in watching the combine because “the 40 is the only thing of interest and it’s not that important”, MJD is the reason why you must if you are looking for an edge during the draft. MJD has huge thighs and a center of gravity unlike any back I’ve seen since Barry Sanders. At every drill with MJD, I was saying “wow” … and yet I still couldn’t take that chance in the second half of the first round … even though I knew what I was seeing on screen was special. McCluster is not MJD. McCluster does remind me of Leon Washington and Darren Sproles but I believe can have more impact at the next level. McCluster will need to get meaningful snaps out of the slot to have his production reach a level that would warrant a higher pick, but in an offense like HOU, SD, DAL or DEN … he could truly be dynamic through use in many situations. He’s surely to be one of those backs that you are certain to be shaking your head when you select him at 9-12 … or cheering when he falls to 13-15. Roll the dice and good luck.

Rather than rank the other numerous backs, we will be moving on to WRs next. Stay tuned.

3/28/10

Running Backs – Part 1

C.J. Spiller, Clemson
5’10 5/8” 196 4.37

No doubt that Spiller will be the first off the board in the NFL draft and little doubt that he will be first off the board in fantasy drafts. Spiller has that “it” factor, regardless of his size. There are holes in his game and his size is a concern. While he does have the “it” factor, his weaknesses are such that he won’t be a three down back. The NFL is moving away from full-workload backs and Spiller simply isn’t physical (blocking or running) enough to carry the load. Additionally, looking at his frame, it doesn’t appear that he will be able to add much weight. He improved each year at Clemson and has a nose for the end zone.

But as a 3rd down or ‘off’ back, Spiller is dynamic with the ball and can be used in a variety of ways. Every team in the league will be looking to duplicate the Chris Johnson effect and while Spiller falls well short of Johnson’s straight line speed, he brings many of the same elements of CJ III.

My take: I like what I see from Spiller but my gut instinct tells me that he will be a good, not great, fantasy producer. Secondly, backs like Spiller have a long history, especially in this era of the 2-2-1 RB rotation, of going to less than ideal situations. If you are in the #1 position, you probably have little choice unless you are a big fan of Ryan Matthews, and if you are in the #2 hole, your job is much easier. If you are out of the top 2 selections, I see no reason to work a trade to land Spiller.

Ryan Matthews, Fresno State
5’11 5/8” 218 4.45

Matthews came out of nowhere in 2009 and quickly began running his way to the first round in the NFL draft. When watching tape on Matthews, it’s hard not to like what you see. He has great vision, a nice blend of balance and strength and is a workhorse. He does not have a great amount of lateral mobility or ‘wiggle’ but what he lacks in agility, he makes up for in his mentality and physical tools.

Matthews falls short of the “dynamic” tag that I look for but there is no discounting of his talent, character and NFL tangibles. A true one cut and go style of back, Matthews projects as a two-down RB that could play on 3rd down as well if he demonstrates or develops good hands going forward. Never called upon to be a receiving threat, Matthews only recorded a total of 19 receptions in his college career.

My take: My belief is that Matthews has the skill-set necessary to be the best RB to emerge from this class but his injury history, less-than-ideal college competition and one year of production make him a risky long term pick. If you are sitting with the #1 pick, I do have Spiller ranked just slightly ahead of Matthews, but Matthews could easily find himself in a great starting situation such as HOU or SD, which would elevate him above Spiller in my mind. However, his Fresno State resume’ is concerning. Two years ago another great Fresno State RB emerged from anonymity, put together a great year, was drafted and quickly returned to anonymity. Dwayne Wright. I had Wright ranked as a high sleeper candidate even though he was drafted in the 4th round to play behind Marshawn Lynch. Matthews is a much better prospect, but one-year-wonder backs don’t score extra points in my system

Jahvid Best, California
5’10 1/8” 199 4.35

Best, for his lack of size, is a tough runner, but not physical. At 199 pounds, Best’s frame is about maxed out and he looks smaller than his listed weight. Best is a very dynamic player both in the running game and out of the backfield in the flat. He flashes dynamic skills and is a terror in the open field. While not a back that is going to carry the load, Best has enough skill and ability to find his way on the field in most situations. If not for his horrific serious concussion in 2009, he would have at least matched his 2008 production. Best has great hands, dynamic skills and the ability to score from anywhere on the field.

Like Spiller above him, Best is not a great inside runner and doesn’t even project as well as Spiller in this category. To a team with an established power running attack, or even a team with a capable 3rd down back, Best would be a nice fit … presenting opportunities for misdirection and a shared load. Teams like MIN, ATL and even SD could benefit for a back like Best. Following previous NFL backs such as Marshawn Lynch and Justin Forsett, Best is going to find his way into the NFL with a selection in the first two rounds (projected high 2nd) and will have every opportunity to be an impact player.

My take: I would have loved to see Best have an injury-free college career. Next to character concerns, injury concerns rank next highest on my list and Best scares me to death in this area. Sure to be available in the 3 hole, Best is one of those backs you secretly want to be taken before your selection. Situation will be the determining factor and situations like SD or CLE will increase his value while SEA, ATL or PIT will reduce it.

Toby Gerhart, Stanford
6’0” 235 4.55

All racial stereotypes aside, Gerhart looks every part of a physical, punishing, carry-the load, back. 3,000 yards and 43 TDs in his last two years is impressive playing as a Cardinal. Watching tape of Gerhart, it is easy to see why many are high on his true RB skills … and also why he has detractors. Outside of Tim Tebow, there is probably no greater mystery than Gerhart. All stereotypes not aside, a high selection of him is ignoring 30 years of history.

Gerhart is a punishing downhill runner. What has impressed my most from watching nearly every carry in his 2009 is his vision. While he does not possess great lateral mobility or quickness, his vision is excellent … almost making it seem that he IS elusive or ‘quick’. I also found myself impressed by his fluidity and his loose hips, which certainly plays into my previous observation. Gerhart also has a tremendous work-habit, chip on his shoulder and has great character.

My take: I just don’t know. Much like Best, Gerhart, almost regardless of his drafted situation, is one of those backs that you want off the board ahead of your selection. There aren’t many backs that truly break out of the size, or in this case, the racial, mold. But his measurable are such that you simply cannot ignore his possibilities. I remember similar interest in one Brian Leonard with much the same surrounding conversation and he is found on the waiver wire in almost every league at this time. While Gerhart is certainly a more pure RB, he still could project at FB in the right system. In my heart of hearts, I have to take the historical odds that he won’t be a productive fantasy producer for long … but I am pulling for him. Projected pick: 4-6 depending on league requirements and drafted situation.

Ben Tate, Auburn
5’11” 220 4.43

Prototypical size and speed and a workman-like attitude make Ben Tate an intriguing pick come draft day, both in the NFL and in fantasy. Tate doesn’t do anything outstanding, but much like Chicago’s Matt Forte’, has helped himself by having a very nice combine along with a relatively successful college career. Tate is a bit stiff with the ball in his hands, doesn’t have a lot of lateral mobility and won’t get to the corner often in the NFL, but he has enough of it all to be a productive feature back or the first “2” in a 2-2-1 offense. Tate has relatively good hands and is coming out of an Auburn program that sends many backs to the NFL with a decent level of success.

Tate’s selection in fantasy will largely depend on his drafted situation. I look for Tate to go in the 2nd round to a team with an established 3rd down back and perhaps even a team with an established running game as a backup to an aging veteran as the lead back (MIA, SEA, STL).

My take: I find Tate intriguing but not exciting. If he is drafted into a situation such as SEA, CLE or SD, he is value will get a big boost. But Tate does not play as fast as his timed speed would suggest and possessing solid, not great, skills across the board often times leads to mediocre performance. He’s a back that you would like to fall to you if you are in the back half of the first round as you can feel good about what he has done and what he offers. Drafted situation will determine whether Tate goes in the 6-10 range or the 11-15 range. My belief is that he will be off the board in picks 8-10.

Jonathan Dwyer, Georgia Tech
5’11 ¼” 229 4.65

Dwyer went from the penthouse to, well, not quite to the outhouse after his 2009 season. In fantasy, all eyes were on Dwyer as he progressed through 2009. Unfortunately, all eyes left Dwyer after he failed to improved on his 2008 season. Tech is well known for their option offense which does create development issues with backs that ascend to the NFL. In 2008, it was easy to look beyond his ill-placed weight and lack of pure speed. His production, toughness and size were enough to project him as the top-pick-to-be in fantasy. He doesn’t have the speed to get to the corner but has better than average between the tackle ability and isn’t without some lateral mobility. He was never asked to be a receiver out of the backfield and his hands are questionable.

While he was said to have lost weight when the combine started, I was dismayed to see that he looked bigger than expected, not proportioned well and then he had a dismal showing that did nothing but make me shake my head in disappointment. There is little doubt that Dwyer has the skills and the character to have a good NFL career, the problem is that he is a pure enigma currently. Drafted situations will truly dictate his fantasy drafted position as coaches will snatch up the name at the top of the 2nd tier (my 3rd tier) … but coaches at the top ½ of the first round won’t be excited about the guesswork that comes with his selection .

My take: For reasons very different that Gerhart, Dwyer too is an enigma. Due to his dramatic fall in value, Dwyer most likely won’t be over-drafted in fantasy and teams in the 4-8 range will be glad to make the selection. Based on my expectations of value and drafted situations, I expect Dwyer to come off the board in the 5-7 range, probably the 6 hole. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him selected at #4 in the right situation, but my belief is that there will be enough value elsewhere to push him down another two spots. If you are in the 7-10 hole, you’d probably like a shot at Dwyer at that point. I can’t help but like what he brings to the table in the way of production and I believe he will outplay his drafted position.

Stay tuned for part 2…

3/25/10

RB Tiers

RBs, RBs, RBs. Every season, it’s the RB class that creates the buzz. Sure, there seems to be a noteworthy wideout most seasons, but nothing truly interests owners like the possibility of a shiny new RB in your starting roster on opening day.

And like most years, 2010 is no different in that 60-70% of fantasy first round picks will be spent on a RB. So exuberant are most coaches that, in many situations, the 4th or 5th RB will leave the board before the first other non-RB skill position. 2010 does have that potential, but due to the lack of a true #1 style RB, I expect that QB Bradford or WR White (barring further value erosion) will go off the board in most draft with the #4 or #5 selection.

When looking at the 2010 RB class, the tiering is somewhat traditional and I will continue to start with the first tier. But, I am on record as saying that from a pure talent perspective, I am not a fan of this year’s RB class. If there was something to be gained, I would leave this first tier blank and begin with CJ Spiller in position #1 in the second tier. I’m on the fence with Spiller but I am not in the camp that believes he will be an every down back. But I wouldn’t necessarily bet against him either.

When ranking RBs, I have my own hybrid system that I carry from year to year, tweaking at every opportunity as new variables suggest a greater likelihood of success or failure. I won’t bore you with all the details (or pass on too much to fellow league coaches who may be trying to steal my secrets) but safe to say that I do consider a scoring system that scores the following (and a few more):

- Size
- Bulk
- College Production
- College Competition
- Speed
- Hands
- Blocking
- Running Style
- Dynamic
- Age
- Injury History
- Character/Work Ethic

This is not all of the factors but includes all of the major ones that I feel must be scored accurately to arrive at a score which then places the RB into a corresponding tier. It is important to be objective and unbiased when scoring the backs, cheating or “giving the benefit of the doubt” will not pay dividends. When unsure, I always choose err on the side of a lower score.

This year, I have the following tiers identified (in order of score):

Tier 1

CJ Spiller
Ryan Matthews
Jahvid Best

Tier 2

Toby Gerhart

Tier 3

Ben Tate
Jonathan Dwyer
Joe McKnight
Montario Hardesty
Anthony Dixon

Tier 4

James Starks
Dexter McCluster
LeGarrette Blount

Tier 5

Javarris James
Charles Scott
Lonyae Miller

All others not listed fall below Tier 5. I should note that if not for Spiller’s great dynamic score, Ryan Matthews would sit atop my list. Not only do I believe he has the better pure-RB skill set, he also has the better NFL body towards being an every-down back, or at least the primary back in a 2-2-1 (see previous article) system.

As far as my scoring system goes, I am close to scrapping the system and migrating to a new system that uses multipliers and weights for the more important factors of measurement. If I do implement that new system, I will apply it to these tiers and will share the results.

In my next entry, I will break down these backs further towards helping you identify the strengths and weaknesses of each as it relates to fantasy.

3/24/10

I had planned for a larger update onight but final posting of the rankings, a new article and my home theater blowing up caused a rather lengthy delay. With all things now under control I’d like to chime in with my thoughts about the 2010 draft class.

I build my house on a solid foundation of objectivity. Don’t get me wrong, it is all too easy and sometimes necessary to be extremely subjective (especially in trading) when looking at the year’s rookies-to-be, but when it comes to making critical choices, trades or assessments as it relates to a possible addition to your roster, you must cast aside all ‘desires’ and see the situation and the player for the ‘what is’.

The 2010 draft class is said to be one of the deepest in years. But that is where the excitement largely ends, at least for the dynasty coach. Across all skill positions, this year is devoid of true “must have” talent. That is not to say that this draft class doesn’t have good depth and valuable players just waiting to lead your team to the playoffs, but I am underwhelmed.

If you’ve read Ken Kelly’s latest offering, “Appetite for Destruction”, you can delve deep into the mind of a successful coach as he uses the next two years to return his team to dynasty prominence. He has never been afraid to make bold moves and with so many draft picks in the next two years, objectivity and a high success rate is crucial if he wishes to be successful. And not having the first overall selection would normally greatly reduce the chance of having significant first-year fantasy production. But 2010, I believe, is a year for the coach with middle round picks and the work ethic to go with them.

I’ll go out on a limb by saying that 2010 reminds me a lot of the 2008 draft, not with the same level of talent in the first round from the skill positions, but in the fact that there is a very wide second tier of players from which to choose. Whether you are a coach that drafts talent over situation, situation over talent or a combination of multiple variables, the 2010 draft class is as diverse and even through the first 12 picks (of a fantasy draft) as I have seen. Note that this is prior to the actual NFL draft.

It would not surprise me at all to see the second three RBs off the board outperform the first three … or even the third tier outperforming the first two tiers. Tomorrow, we’ll start putting tiers on select positions and giving consideration to those players within each tier.

In short, however, while the RB class is intriguing, even without any top tier talent that I believe will change the fantasy lineup, I find the group somewhat uninspiring … but also very disparate. What I do like is the size across the group.

QBs in 2010 are disappointing almost in total. I do like Bradford as a personality and a high character kid, but it is a class of one. Clausen is certain to go in the top 12 but he is sure to come with a lot of risk come fantasy draft day.

WRs are intriguing but if you have followed my draft analysis as it relates to WRs in fantasy that are drafted outside of the top 5 NFL picks, you understand that almost any selection of a WR is a complete exercise in futility and “hope and prayer” drafting. Simply put, if a WR is NOT selected in the top 5 NFL picks come draft day, you are lookign at a 75%+ bust rate on your new pass catcher. And this year has a top talent (Bryant) but not without major risks. After Bryant, anyones guess as to who the true stand-outs will be.

2010 is also talent poor for IDP coaches.

But tomorrow is another day and we’ll start getting into the specifics of this draft and help you wade through these waters of mediocrity.

Get some sleep, assemble your team needs and put on your ‘what is’ hat … there’s work to be done.

3/23/10

With respect to the Dynasty format of our beloved game, and especially in those months preceding the draft, most notably March and April, I spend far too many hours pouring over dozens of blogs, beat writer rants, “expert” opinions, college stat lines and I’ve even been known to study the zodiac on occasion …. or even read tea leaves. I once studied weather patterns over Mel Kiper’s hair in order to get a leg up on the draft.

Why do I do this? Because, simply put, those that do the work reap the rewards. In dynasty, a single piece of information or analysis can mean the difference between multiple championships and prolonged rebuilding. There truly is NO off-season and if you cannot accept that fact, you are better suited in a redraft league.

If you do understand this primary tenet, then you also understand why dynasty league fantasy football is the premier fantasy format for die-hard coaches. There is simply no substitute. And while other sites may have more content, posters, or flash … I do not believe you will find more dedicated coaches, commissioners or results-oriented providers than here at DLF.

What you the reader may not realize is actually how much time the partners here at DLF spend analyzing dynasty trends, compiling draft analysis, pouring over every article without regard to how obscure it may be and endlessly working trades and scenarios. It’s a 24×7 love affair that has produced multiple rings … for myself, three last year. Much of the time, we’re so deep into research that posting here on the site is forgotten.

DLF’s own Ken Kelly owns a majority of the first round picks in our highly competitive dynasty league after determining it was time to unload and rebuild for another dynasty run. Each night, I can attest to the fact that he is pouring over rookie analysis, multiple mock drafts and draft scenarios not leaving a single stone or article unturned or unread. When does it all start … or stop? ….there is no delineation. It’s a perpetual process.

I follow prep stars as they declare which colleges they will attend and I follow their college development. Whether Bush, Jonathan Stewart, McKnight, Clausen, Seastrunk or Lattimore … my spreadsheet is full of the future stars and busts of fantasy drafts yet to pass, all before they get a single touch in college. All in the name of this most glorious of fantasy formats.

As I write this, we are one month away from our next NFL draft. This draft class has some interesting twists, characters and hidden gems for those with a keen eye and a 6th sense. It’s not all about college production, size or style of offense. It’s often about dynamic, work ethic, presence and character.

In the coming days and weeks, I will be breaking down the draft, its rookies and the story lines that I feel are compelling towards helping you to uncover the hidden gems and avoiding the high profile busts. I’ll be updating as often as I can so check back regularly.

I also want to strongly encourage all of you reading this, if you don’t already, to sign up and participate in our forums. I have visited every forum related to the dynasty format that I have found and I can honestly tell you that we have the best dedicated minds and posters in the game. If you don’t believe this, check out the forum and peruse the multiple mock drafts, rookie ratings and analytical banter. When you decide to participate in a forum, I guarantee that your results will improve.

Tomorrow, we get under way …..