As has been suggested in recent days, San Diego’s premier WR, Vincent Jackson, has been suspended for the first three games of the 2010 season for a NFL conduct policy violation. The suspension could be appealed and reduced but is unlikely.
Jackson has been rocketing up ADP lists recently after a great 2009 campaign where he compiled 68 receptions for 1,167 yards and 9 TDs. Many felt, including us, that Jackson would build upon this performance and reach double digit TDs along with a healthy increase in his yardage and reception totals. While this still could be possible, it will be a tough order to fill with only 13 games on his schedule.
What does this mean for other skill position players?
Legedu Naanee WR
The 26 (27 on 9/16) year old’s opportunity has arrived! Naanee has been unable to break into the starting lineup since being drafted in 2007. 2009 saw a mini breakthrough of sorts when he posted his career best line of 24/242/2. With good size, and more than adequate speed, Naanee immediately moves into a starting role, if only for three games. Naanee does possess a certain dynamic and could leverage this opportunity into a solidified WR3 role for the Chargers. Considering that fellow starter Malcolm Floyd hasn’t solidified his WR2 as of yet, the opportunity for Naanee to supplant Floyd is there.
Malcom Floyd WR
The 28 year old (29 on 9/8) had his best year in 2009 as well, totaling 45/776/1. Floyd’s hold on the WR2 position is tenuous but he will be given another year to build upon 2009. With Jackson out of the loop for the first three games, it is unclear who will be the WR1 in their offense. My belief is that Floyd is a better possession receiver and red zone target than is Naanee. Both would appear to be less-than-stellar options in fantasy until otherwise proven.
Buster Davis WR
Entering his 4th campaign for the Chargers, Davis may be playing his last games as a Charger. Jackson’s three game vacation allows Davis one last opportunity to be productive in an offense that will need WR productivity, but it will have to come as San Diego’s WR3. In all likelihood, Davis will slip back into anonymity once Jackson returns. But should Davis step up as their youngest WR with any amount of experience, 2011 could see an expanded role.
Antonio Gates TE
Gates has been the linchpin and first-look option in the Charger offense since 2003. Only since Jackson’s increased presence in 2009 has Gates found more workable seams and less double teams. It stands to reason that Gates will see an increased average of receptions through the first three games but not such that drastically increases his value as an aging stud TE still worthy of a top 4 selection within the TE group.
Philip Rivers
With new RB toy Ryan Mathews and trusted TE Antonio Gates at his disposal, Rivers will not be adversely affected long enough to drop his ADP ranking or 2010 production. Unless Jackson’s continued behavior continues to draw the ire of the commissioner, it is safe to continue drafting Rivers highly within the QB position.
Vincent Jackson has displayed a disturbing level of behavior over a long enough period of time that dynasty owners must begin to drop Jackson’s value. With multiple events spanning multiple years, there does exist a greater possibility that an 8 or 16 game suspension could be looming unless Jackson can take corrective action. Time and time again, we have seen players that cannot get their collective acts together towards realizing their full potential. Even with the possibility of a trade to a team such as the Seahawks, a WR’s r0le in an offense and their corresponding fantasy production are not guarantees with a new team.
If this suspension passes without further incident, I am inclined to keep Jackson in the top 5 within the WR position. However, his average draft position overall will take a small hit as players from other positions, without conduct issues, take priority.
Caveat emptor (Buyer Beware)!
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