With the rookie draft less than two weeks away, FFB coaches everywhere are scanning their rosters, doing their homework and ranking players. Tough decisions will be the name of the game as you must decide whether to fill a hole on your roster or take the best player available (BPA). Where you fall on that argument largely is determined, most likely, on the depth of your team and recent success.
While many coaches will argue vehemently one strategy or the other, I am a believer that the choice still comes down to the build of your team, the complexion of your league … and also the position of need.
In this article, we revisit the WR position with a look back over ten years of the draft. For ease, and fairness, I always leave out the most recent year as rookie WRs rarely have 1st year impact and it is too soon to start applying tags like “bust” or “stud” to all but the rarest players, especially WRs.
Before I start, let me say that labeling any player into one of the categories is a subjective process. Players that were busts two years ago, can now be a starter and vice-versa. It is very possible where I see a “starter”, you the reader may see a “bench” player or a “stud”. In making my assignments, there aren’t too many decisions that significantly change the results either way.
For purposes of this measurement, I have always used four categories:
- Stud – An every week starter, regardless of situation
- Starter – A strong starter worthy of starting most weeks
- Bench – A developmental player or spot starter when desperate
- Bust – A player likely found taking up space on your waiver wire
From the years of 1999-2008, 40 WRs have been selected in the first round. With the exception of 2008, at least one WR has been selected in the first round, in most cases, three to five. 2008 had no first round selections at the position with Donnie Avery being first of the board at 2.01 (Pick #33). 2006 saw only a single WR off the board in the first round, Santonio Holmes at #25.
During this ten year period, and considering the 40 WRs selected, here is my breakdown of fantasy impact at the position from first round.
Stud: 6
Starter: 9
Bench: 3
Bust: 22
Let’s look at the Studs above briefly. This group contains Calvin Johnson (2007), Roddy White (2005), Larry Fitzgerald (2004), Andre Johnson (2003), Reggie Wayne (2001) and Torry Holt (1999). Of the last ten years, 6 studs have emerged. Looking a bit deeper, the stud was the first player (within the WR position) off the board in three of the six years. In those three years, Calvin Johnson was selected with pick #2, Larry Fitzgerald at #3 and Torry Holt at #6. The other studs were as follows: Roddy White was 6th off the board at pick #27. Andre Johnson was 2nd off the board at pick #3. Reggie Wayne was 6th off the board at #30. It should be noted that Andre Johnson was a very high selection but went at #3, behind epic bust Charles Rogers at #2.
Many would also argue that Roddy White hasn’t reached “stud” level at this time. It’s close, but currently I believe you start him every week without much question, thus he receives the rating.
What have we learned? First and foremost if you are looking for a stud WR, you will get one 15% of the time within the first round. And 67% of the time, stud WRs are found on or before pick #6 in the NFL draft. The only two exceptions were Roddy White and Reggie Wayne. Your chance of getting a non-starting WR is roughly 63%. More significantly, the chance of a first round WR busting is 55%.
When considering the ten WRs that were first off the board over the past ten NFL drafts, you have a 50% chance of getting a stud or starter, 40% chance of a bust and a 10% chance at a bench player. When looking at the 2nd receiver off the board in each draft during the period, the breakdown was similar in %, noting that only one stud came from that group (Andre Johnson)
Another way to look at these %s is to realize that of the WRs during this period that were taken within the first six picks of the NFL draft, only one (Charles Rogers) was a bust. Interestingly enough, of those WRs selected in picks 7-15 of the NFL draft, only 2 were “Starters”, 2 were “Bench” and 10 were “Busts”.
So, how do you use this information?
Stud WRs are a tough lot to project and tougher to draft. Realistically, if they aren’t taken in the top six selections in the NFL, the chance of getting one is less than 10%. This does show that NFL evaluators do have some level of success in determining who the true stud performers could be at the next level, when drafted highly. Beyond this, it tends to be a crap-shoot.
Typically, WRs tend to fall in fantasy drafts. RBs are still coveted and without a PPR system to boost fantasy points per game (FPG), the WR position doesn’t become a good risk reward until the bottom half of the first round and usually high in the second round. In a PPR system, careful early selection of a WR can pay dividends, as long as you have a lot of patience and don’t have unrealistic expectations. The position is very unlike the QB or RB position in that it exists on an island and requires a complex set of variables to ultimately be successful.
When WRs fall on draft (NFL) day, there is a reason for it. And you the fantasy coach must be just as discerning before making a WR selection. I don’t believe it is a good decision to use BPA blindly when it comes to selecting a WR. BPA when measuring 2nd tier WRs to other positions is VERY difficult to do with any level of success. The sheer bust rate of WRs when considering those outside the first round is staggering. Unless your team has a significant hole to fill, it is usually best to allow other coaches to throw the dice early in your draft.
I have found a fair amount of success drafting WRs at the bottom of the 2nd round and into the 3rd and 4th rounds. This is where I use my personal scoring system, to uncover the gems beyond pick #20 (in fantasy drafts). And don’t discount a quick trigger with your waiver wire during the season.
Every year the draft has quality rookies that we all use to build our fantasy house. Problem is, historically speaking, a house built with early selections of WRs will seldom be more than a house of cards.
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