Dynasty Stock Market – Trade Deadline Edition

Something wicked this way comes.

I recall a mid-August conversation I was having with a coworker about the upcoming season and the shared excitement that we were feeling.  No doubt it was a conversation had millions of times over by those such as yourself reading this now.  Towards the end of that conversation I distinctly recall saying “…I just have this nagging feeling that this is going to be a very strange year”.

Whether due to some existential tap into the fantasy football spirit world or, more likely, my annual persistent feelings of unease related to my teams, one thing is certain – this has indeed been one wickedly strange year beyond compare.

I won’t bore you with the long list of oddities that have occurred through these eight short weeks, certainly you can pick out a dozen or so on your own without much thought.  It could be that you have benefited from some of these events or trends.  Or it could be that your experience has failed you because, after all, you weren’t going to be fooled by a couple of good games from, as DLF’s own Ken Moody calls him, Brandon-Freakin’ Lloyd.  Besides, you have super-sleeper QB Kevin Kolb that you stole from your fellow coaches in the 9th round – Candy from a baby!  For what it’s worth, chalk my 2010 up to the latter.   In fact, following a 2009 campaign where I could do no wrong, those championship teams are but echoes of greatness from a time long ago.  

Your trade deadline is likely looming.  Cast aside your seasonal disappointment, the weekly Sunday night thoughts of “why am I doing this  to myself?” or take a break from praising yourself long enough to consider 2011, your team needs and the rough gems that are hiding in your free agent pool.  Like DLF’s Ken Kelly proclaimed in a discussion last week, paraphrased here, “…we all need to be on the lookout for those 8th year breakout WRs (Brandon Lloyd).” In any event, now is the time to move some of that depth to free up a roster spot or three, add needed depth in return and take a flier with a spot or two.

QUARTERBACKS

Bruce Gradkowski, OAK

Hard to say who the starter will be week to week, but Gradkowski is a hard nosed, no nonsense, young QB but that has a tendency to get the job done.  In Oakland, anything goes and you have to like Gradkowski’s gritty style of play.  He’s hard not to like.  He’s a good QB3 or QB4 to have rostered.

Troy Smith, SF

Much like Gradkowski’s situation, the 49′ers are looking for any signal caller that will give them a spark.  Alex Smith is likely done in San Fran. and Troy Smith looked capable in his only start thus far.  Smith has always had ability but hasn’t been in the right situation that takes advantage of his mobility.  San Francisco seems to be a good fit with young dynamic receivers and a capable offensive line.  Stay tuned.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, BUF

At what point does the butt of so many fantasy jokes become a viable starter?   Don’t look now but but Fitzpatrick is a top 10 QB and is a viable QB1 at the half way point.  No, I still couldn’t be comfortable with Fitzpatrick as my QB1, but he’s certainly done enough to give Buffalo a reason for optimism.  He’s probably not a player that will command much if you have him rostered, but he’s still a great buy-low candidate on his name alone.

Colt McCoy, CLE

He’s proving his doubters wrong.  McCoy isn’t going to remind anyone of Peyton Manning, but there isn’t any pressure on him to perform and he looks comfortable with the ball in his hands.  Buy low as a QB3.

Max Hall/John Skelton, ARI

Take your pick for the likely starter in 2011.  Derek Anderson isn’t the answer and Max Hall is doing his best Anderson impression.  Whisenhut is said to still like what Max Hall brings to the table but there is sure to be continued experimentation at the position.  John Skelton is likely on the waiver wire and is worth an addition if you a spot available.

Tarvaris Jackson, MIN

Jackson will be starting for the Vikes in 2011.  Now’s the time add him if you are looking for a QB3 with upside.

Kevin Kolb, PHI

Now’s the time to capitalize on the frustration of Kolb owners.  They should be looking to unload the 2010 disappointment for a ham and cheese sandwich … unless they also own Vick.  We haven’t heard the last of Kolb.

RUNNING BACKS

Mike Goodson/Tyrell Sutton, CAR

DeAngelo Williams is not only a 2010 disappointment but also a 2011 free agent.  It’s likely that DWill will want to depart to greener pastures and Jonthan Stewart has done little this year to show that he can carry the load.  Stewart will likely be the RB1 but Goodson is a nice sized back with good speed and great hands.  He could be a dark horse for the starting position.  Sutton is no slouch as well and although smaller in size, he has a powerful running style.  Add or trade for Goodson for next to nothing now and consider adding Sutton from the wire if he’s available.

Mike Hart, IND

Has anyone else noticed that Hart is outplaying Donald Brown?  Sure, Brown has been injured but that’s been a common occurrence in his young career.  Hart has a history of injury troubles as well but has been running tough and with good vision.  With Addai’s future a bit uncertain, Hart should be rostered if he’s available on the wire … or available on the cheap if he’s currently rostered.

Deji Karim, JAX

He’s built a lot like MJD and is not without talent.  It’s a crowded backfield in Jacksonville with MJD and Jennings but Karim keeps it interesting and he’s too dynamic to be on the bench.   He’s likely on your waiver wire or occupying the last spot on a roster in deeper leagues.

Anthony Dixon, SF

After being showcased in the preseason and becoming a household (at least in ffb circles) rookie name, Dixon has largely been absent from anything noteworthy during the season.  That makes for a perfect opportunity for a buy-low.  Dixon has a rare blend of size, speed and vision for a big back.

Keiland Williams, WAS

Williams will be 25 before next season begins so he’s no spring chicken.  But he’s got the size and ability to be an every down back.  On the downside is the fact that he plays for Mike Shanahan and there’s no telling how he’s really viewed.  And that fact is the hand that must be played in trying to acquire him on the cheap.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Jordy Nelson, GB

If you’ve followed me for any time, you know that I like James Jones.  Not only is he a tough minded receiver that has big play ability and reminds me a lot of Anquan Boldin, but he’s also in line to be the WR2 in the high powered GB offense.  But don’t count out Jordy Nelson, who has better hands than Jones.  Nelson will see plenty of snaps in 2011 and, if the stars align, could even surpass Jones on the depth chart.  I’ve seen Nelson available on some waiver wires – thus he should be a cheap addition.

Santonio Holmes, NYJ

While I’m not really a fan of Holmes, there’s no denying his ability when he’s on his game.  He’s been a bit lost in the offense since returning from his suspension, but that is what will allow you to add him without having to give up anything significant.  If you’re in need of WRs, Holmes should be available for as little as a second round pick in 2011.  His talents certainly make more sense that adding a WR via the draft in the 2nd round.  Expect him to increase his production going forward and return to previous year form in 2011.  However, the knucklehead factor with this player is very high – Caveat Emptor

Louis Murphy, OAK

Murphy’s only consistency has been in the area of the injury report to date but we at DLF still like his prospects going forward.  Frustrated owners may even be dropping him so keep your eyes open or float a low-ball offer.

Jordan Shipley, CIN

It’s rare to have a rookie play like a veteran but Shipley does just that.  He’s a true Wes Welker clone and has already established a level of trust from Carson Palmer.  He’ll never be a WR1 and likely not a WR2, but he is a high upside WR3 with some WR2 potential should he be as productive as Wes Welker.  Value will be all over the board based on the coach that owns him.  Don’t overpay for him – if an owning coach mentions Wes Welker as a comparison, you’ll pay too much.  Move along.

Seyi Ajirotutu, SD

I’ll admit it, I wasn’t willing to add Ajirotutu prior to this weekend even with him drawing the start.  He’s got great size and speed and turned in a nice performance in his first start.  Expectations have to be lowered going forward, but San Diego has a carousel of receivers in place and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Ajirotutu starting on a consistent basis.

Mohammed Massaquoi, CLE

I like his game and his maturity.  Furthermore, with CLE actually flirting with an effective running game and Colt McCoy largely resembling a NFL quarterback, Massaquoi is going to have more opportunities in the remainder of 2010.  What’s best is that his value hasn’t been lower and he may even be on your wire.  Massaquoi has eventual WR2 for the patient coach, but it may be another 18 mos.  Acquire him cheaply and like a good wine, put him a way and come back 18-24 mos. from now.

TIGHT ENDS

Jacob Tamme, IND

This is far more likely Tamme being a product of Peyton Manning’s presence than it is Tamme being a stellar talent but, nonetheless, at 25 years old, Tamme has proven that he can be very effective in that offense.

Jimmy Graham, NO

I’ve been on Graham’s bandwagon from the moment he was drafted by the Saints and I still am.  I still believe Graham has TE1 ability and will take over for Shockey in 2011.  Shockey was injured in today’s game and Graham’s playing time could be taking a step up in week 10.

Ed Dickson, BAL

I like the Oregon product better than Dennis Pitta and should Heap not return in 2011, the TE in that offense has a lot of immediate value.  Dickson has the speed to stretch the field and the hands to be a low end TE1.  The BAL offense has matured and is now as dangerous as any in the NFL.  With Ray Rice in the backfield and Boldin drawing double teams, the starting TE in BAL is noteworthy.

DEFENSE

Deandre Levy, DET

Levy is likely no secret but he’s worth a waiver wire check as he is now mostly healthy and starting again.  Levy had a nice Sunday performance with 10 tackles and should be starting from here on out.

Thomas Davis, CAR

Injury misfortune again sidelined Davis for 2010 but don’t forget about him going into 2011.  The dynamic playmaker with a great motor should be back and nearly health for the 2011 campaign.  He’s not a lock to return to old top 10 form, but I wouldn’t bet against him.  He’s likely available on your IDP wire.

Tavares Gooden, BAL

Ray Lewis just never seems to age but he has to be on retirement watch heading into 2011.  Gooden is a potential replacement and should be available on your IDP wire.  I think Gooden is a better fit outside but any MLB in BAL is worthy of note.

VETERANS

Brett Favre, MIN

There is no chance, at least in my mind, that Favre returns in 2011.  Brad Childress is sure to be jettisoned as soon as the Vikings are out of playoff contention (again in my mind) or at the end of the season.  I fully expect Leslie Frazier to take over as head coach and Tarvaris Jackson will be given every chance to start.  Favre may have some value to a competing team as he does have a week 17 match-up vs. DET.  Favre led my team to the championship last year and I cut bait last week after receiving no interest in trade talks.

Randy Moss, TEN

Moss’ days as a top 10 WR are likely over.  He’s sure to have inconsistent big days that make it tough to start him on an ongoing basis.  More importantly, he likely can’t be traded for anything resembling a fair value if you own him.  In all likelihood, he has to retire off your roster unless you’re willing to trade him for unproven talent or draft picks.  If you are coasting to the playoffs, Moss is a good player to have on your bench just in case.

L.T., NYJ

L.T. has shown that he has plenty left in his tank and I fully expect at least another year of good-enough production.  If you are out of contention, L.T. makes for a great sell-high candidate, but don’t just give him away.  He finishes with Chicago in week 16 and Buffalo in week 17.

Fred Jackson, BUF

I believe Jackson is a sell-now candidate in all formats regardless of your team’s prospects for 2010.  While Jackson doesn’t have the mileage on his legs that many 20 y/o backs have, he’ll be 30 in early 2011 and plays in Buffalo.  Lynch being shipped to Seattle does help his value – all the more reason to move him NOW!

Terrell Owens, CIN

T.O. is an enigma.  If your team is competitive, you have to hang onto him and play him through this year.  But if the odds are that your team will not make the playoffs, move T.O. to a team in competition for a young talent, picks or a combination of both.  T.O.’s value is abnormally high and most forget that he’s pushing 40 … or 37.

Chad OchoCinco, CIN

Chad has almost no value currently.  As such, he makes for a far better buy-low candidate.  He’ll be 33 in early 2011 and may still have a couple of years in the tank.  Expectations should be kept low.

Roy Williams, DAL

Don’t write Williams off just yet.  Williams has shown that he still has big play potential and is best as the 2nd receiving option.  For this reason, Williams is a good buy low candidate.  Most believe that there aren’t enough balls to go around in Big-D and owners of Williams should be anxious to get any value in return.

Brandon Freakin’ Lloyd, DEN

Just close your eyes and enjoy the ride.  Maybe sacrifice a goat or something.

Brandon Freakin’ Lloyd?!?!?