Dynasty league owners haven’t found much to like in Oakland the past few years. From big name acquisitions like Javon Walker to highly heralded rookies like JaMarcus Russell and Darren McFadden, the Raiders have simply left a lot to be desired from a dynasty fantasy football perspective recently.
This season brings a new age full of renewed hope in Oakland. JaMarcus Russell has finally been shipped out of town and new quarterback Jason Campbell brings an element of legitimacy and stability unmatched at that position for quite some time. Campbell’s presence should help this offense reach new heights and finally begin to unlock the potential of its young players.
While the quarterback position seems to be settled at this point, there are lots of question marks surrounding the other skill positions in Oakland. While the Raiders have been far from a fantasy football haven, it would be unwise to ignore the potential they have in dynasty leagues. Let’s analyze the future of the Raiders in the latest edition of the dynasty capsule.
Players in their Prime
Jason Campbell QB
It’s flown under the radar that Campbell posted career highs in completions, completion percentage, passing yards and touchdowns last season, his final in Washington. When you consider the dysfunction with the Redskins, his 3,618 yards, and 20 touchdowns are pretty impressive. His reward was being jettisoned to Oakland, but that may just be the best thing that could happen with Campbell. While he’ll again have a new coordinator and coach, he was due for a fresh start. While he won’t be given the job, he’s shown the ability to lead a team fairly effectively. His numbers from last year should be a minimum expectation for 2010 and make him a good low-end No. 2 quarterback in dynasty leagues at the very least. I consider him a good buy low prospect at this point.
Michael Bush RB
He’s likely never be that bruising game changer we hoped to see when he came out from Louisville. Bush does have talent, though. His 589 yards weren’t incredible last season, but averaging 4.8 yards per carry in Oakland is nothing to gloss over. He’s carved himself a significant role in the backfield, regardless of Darren McFadden’s development, or lack thereof.
Zach Miller TE
Miller was one of the few bright spots coming from Oakland in dynasty leagues last year as he led the team with 66 receptions and 805 yards. Jason Campbell certainly knows how to use his tight ends as both Chris Cooley and Fred Davis had value on an awful Washington team. Expect Miller to immediately become Campbell’s best friend in the passing game. He’s a sneaky bet for six to eight touchdowns and it’s not inconceivable to think he could push for 1,000 yards next year.
Rising Players
Louis Murphy WR
As a fourth round pick, Murphy outplayed fellow rookie and first rounder Darrius Heyward-Bey last season, leading the Raiders with a 15.3 yards per catch average and four touchdowns. Murphy returns for his second campaign with even higher expectations. When you consider the depth chart around him and the presence of Campbell, Murphy makes for a good No. 4 or No. 5 wide receiver on a dynasty league roster, with some potential to grow even more.
Darrius Heyward-Bey WR
It would be easy to jump ship on Heyward-Bey and label him a bust after his rookie season featured just nine catches, 124 yards and one touchdown. After being left for dead after the season, his value is actually rising in dynasty leagues this Summer. He’s said to have added ten pounds of muscle and is showing a new work ethic on and off the field. The book isn’t quite closed on Heyward-Bey, especially considering most wide receivers typically take at least three years to develop. Dynasty owners simply have to hope the light is starting to come on for him. While he’s not someone to target in trades right now, he’s also far from being someone to cut in a dynasty league.
Chaz Schilens WR
His foot injuries are a long-term concern, but it’s easy to see Schilens has talent. It seems he just makes plays whenever he’s on the field. For the Raiders, that’s saying something. With the addition of Campbell, he may just finally reach his full potential.
Players with Falling Values
Darren McFadden RB
After being the consensus No. 1 pick in 2008 rookie drafts, McFadden’s value has hit an all-time low. Nobody taking him then figured they’d be hoping he could at least earn a role in a time share two years later. His inability to break tackles has been well documented, as has concerns about his durability. It’s now or never for McFadden to break through. From what we’ve seen so far, dynasty owners shouldn’t expect a breakthrough.
Bruce Gradkowski QB
He’s shown flashes of life in both Tampa Bay and Oakland, but it’s highly unlikely he can unseat Jason Campbell. Some dynasty league owners were thinking ahead last year and stashing Gradkowski in case Russell was let go. Unfortunately, Russell was replaced with a better option that extinguished much of his value.
Johnnie Lee Higgins WR
Higgins is a fast returner and has shown some flashes as a wide receiver, but there’s a sleeper on this team named Jacoby Ford who may just do everything Higgins does just a little bit better.
Sleeper
Jacoby Ford WR
Ford was the fastest player at the combine with a 4.28 forty, so of course he ended up with the Raiders. He’s said to have run as fast as 4.126 in the past, so his speed is certifiable. Oakland traded up into the fourth round to get him and have to hope he can show as much as last year’s fourth round wide receiver, Louis Murphy. Ford has skills to become an effective slot receiver and is worth a late round flier in rookie drafts, especially those rewarding return yardage.
Summary
The silver and black haven’t produced too many high points for fantasy owners since their Super Bowl run in 2003. While the end of the painful JaMarcus Russell era leaves the Raiders still squarely in rebuilding mode, the future is not hopeless. The Raiders may just find success could come with the loss of a player like Russell more than anything else. With a new quarterback and young players at all the skill positions, Oakland is again a team to follow in dynasty league circles.
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I own Zach Miller in a dynasty league, and I’m tempted to package him with some valuable depth I have(Breaston, Brandon Tate, picks to throw things out there) to try and acquire Jermichael Finley.
Do you guys see a big gap between the two next season, or is Miller going to ascend to a good enough level to where he’s not worth trading some valuable dynasty pieces? I have solidified my starters across the board, so I’m really trying to go all out, but if Miller meets your projections of 1000 and 8 or something close, that’s a better season then Jason Witten last year.
There’s quite possible a huge gap between the two. If Finley really maximizes his potential and becomes the player many think he can be, it could be as many as 3-4 points per week.
From a positional point differential perspective, that’s very significant.
Let me be clear on something else as well. By no means is 1,000 yards and 8 scores an actual projection for Miller. It’s just not inconceivable to think it could realistically happen. A more accurate projection for Miller is likely something like 800 yards and 5 scores.