2010 Predictions
The season is just around the bend, so it’s time for our annual staff predictions.
Unlike other sites out there, our responsibility is to focus not jut strictly on the present. As the leader in dynasty fantasy football information, we have an obligation to our followers to not only guide them through the current season, but plan for the future as well.
With that in mind, the staff is revealing their predictions for the seven following categories:
2010 Fantasy MVP
2010 Fantasy Rookie of the Year
2010 Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year
The Year’s Biggest Drop
(Player who will experience the biggest drop in Dynasty Value going into next season)
The Year’s Biggest Rise
(Player who will experience the biggest rise in Dynasty Value going into next season)
2011 First Rounder
(Player who will be in NEXT year’s top 12 in dynasty drafts, who wasn’t this year)
Old News
(Player who will not be in NEXT year’s top 12 in dynasty drafts, who likely was this year)
Without any further hesitation, here’s what we believe will happen as we look ahead to the future.
KEN KELLY
2010 Fantasy MVP – Andre Johnson, WR, HOU
There are certainly lots of players to choose from this year, including Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, or Maurice Jones-Drew to name a few. My money is on Andre the Giant.
It’s a little risky to choose a wide receiver, but I believe this is the year that Andre Johnson makes his mark as the most dominant wideout in all of fantasy. He has two straight seasons of at least 100 catches and 1,500 yards.
This year, I believe he’ll add double digit touchdowns for the first time in his career, making the gap between himself and the next tier of wideouts big enough to merit him being the MVP.
2010 Fantasy Rookie of the Year – Jahvid Best, RB, DET
Again, lots to pick from here including Ryan Mathews, Dez Bryant, CJ Spiller, and even Mike Williams of Tampa Bay. I think Best is the one.
It could be argued that Ryan Mathews has the best situation to excel, and that Dez Bryant has the most talent of all rookies. I would argue that Best fits somewhere in between.
Best finds himself in a great place to flourish with defenses keying so much on Megatron. He also has an underrated set of skills that have already been on display this preseason.
It’s a reach, but one I’ll take.
2010 Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year – Clinton Portis, RB, WAS
Portis was an absolute mess last season when he posted just 494 yards and one touchdown.
There’s always a chance that Mike Shanahan throws everyone a curveball on this one, but I expect much better things from Portis. In fact, I believe he’ll be back to the level of a middle tier No. 2 running back this season. He has a familiar offense, understands the blocking schemes, and has motivation to perform.
Of course, I say that and Keiland Williams will probably be Mike Shanahan’s opening day starter.
The Year’s Biggest Drop – Cedric Benson, RB, CIN
(Player who will experience the biggest drop in Dynasty Value going into next season)
I’m not saying Benson is going to have an awful season, but I don’t think he has a chance to hold on to his ADP next year.
His 1,251 rushing yards were great last season. In fact, he could have easily won fantasy comeback player of the year in 2009. My biggest concerns with Benson long term are his age (he’ll be 28 in December), his career yards per carry average of just 3.8, and the emergence of Bernard Scott.
That combination of factors just screams “dropoff” to me.
The Year’s Biggest Rise – Pierre Thomas, RB, NO
(Player who will experience the biggest rise in Dynasty Value going into next season)
This one was tough. You could make a pretty good case for players like Arian Foster and Mike Wallace, just to name two. I’ll go with the 25-year old Thomas.
With Mike Bell out of town and Lynell Hamilton out for the year, Reggie Bush is the only thing standing in Thomas’ way of being a legitimate top-10 option in fantasy leagues.
I think this is the year he finally breaks out for his first 1,000 yard, double digit touchdown season. He’s going to be a key player in a very dynamic offense.
2011 First Rounder – Jonathan Stewart, RB, CAR
(Player who will be in NEXT year’s top 12 in dynasty drafts, who wasn’t this year)
The 23-year old Stewart was solid last year with 1,133 yards, 10 touchdowns, and a ridiculous 5.1 yards per carry average. Factor in the committee approach he dealt with and those numbers are simply mind boggling.
We saw a little bit of what Stewart could do at the end of last season when DeAngelo Williams was out with an injury. His 440 yards and three touchdowns in the last three games of 2009 won many owners fantasy championships across the country. He basically showed everyone he has the ability to be a big-time back in reality and fantasy.
Fact is, it’s going to be very difficult for the Panthers to keep Williams and Stewart together much longer. Williams is a free agent at the end of the season and it will be nearly impossible for the Panthers to justify investing the type of money he’ll command when Stewart is locked up for the next few years.
Old News – DeAngelo Williams, RB, CAR
(Player who will not be in NEXT year’s top 12 in dynasty drafts, who likely was this year)
I think Williams is going to have another spectacular season, but his long-term future is up in the air. He’ll command a lot of money as a free agent after the season and certainly get paid, just likely not by Carolina.
Fact is, he’ll be 28 next year and that’s an awful tough age to justify making him a first round pick in dynasty leagues.
JEFF HAVERLACK
2010 Fantasy MVP – Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB
If his offensive line holds up, Rodgers is going to have another incredible year in that ridiculous offense. With a better defense in 2010, the Packers are a sneaky pick to represent the NFC in the big show.
2010 Fantasy Rookie of the Year – Ryan Mathews, RB, SD
I’m not ruling out a surprise by one of the other starting rookies (Best, Spiller, or even Mike Williams) , but none of them will get the quality touches that Mathews will be seeing game in and game out.
2010 Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year – Matt Forte, RB, CHI
He’s been left for dead in many leagues.
I don’t believe Chester Taylor will keep Forte off the field. Forte is motivated, Chicago’s offense has been transformed, and he’s just the type of back to produce in the Mike Martz system.
The Year’s Biggest Drop – Steven Jackson, RB, STL
(Player who will experience the biggest drop in Dynasty Value going into next season)
Jackson has to be the focus of that offense and every defensive coordinator knows that. The quarterbacks and running backs in St. Louis should get hazard pay for having to play in that offense. I like Jackson, but I don’t think he finishes the season.
The Year’s Biggest Rise – Arian Foster, RB, HOU
(Player who will experience the biggest rise in Dynasty Value going into next season)
Could the stars be aligning any better for him?
Slaton is quickly becoming an afterthought and Tate is done for the season. Foster will have the year he needs to prove that he can carry the load.
2011 First Rounder – Ryan Mathews, RB, SD
(Player who will be in NEXT year’s top 12 in dynasty drafts, who wasn’t this year)
This isn’t so much about Mathews’ talent as it is his talent AND his situation. Mathews has every down back potential in an offense that can reward his toughness.
If he stays healthy, he’ll be a low first round choice in 2011.
Old News – Jamaal Charles, RB, KC
(Player who will not be in NEXT year’s top 12 in dynasty drafts, who likely was this year)
I need to see a full year of productivity before anointing Charles a poor man’s Chris Johnson and I’m not sold quite yet. Charles is too gimmicky as a back and Thomas Jones is certain to steal a good number of carries.
A borderline first rounder in 2010, he’ll fall in 2011.
KEN MOODY
2010 Fantasy MVP – Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB
Just missed: Tony Romo, Ray Rice
Rodgers was a top 3 fantasy QB in most scoring systems last season, and will be again in 2010. The fact that he accomplishes this outside of a dome makes it all the more remarkable. Jennings, Jones and Finley will continue to improve, and Driver is a dependable, if aging, stud.
2010 Fantasy Rookie of the Year – Ryan Matthews, RB, SD
Just missed: Rolando McClain (IDP), Jahvid Best
Perfect player in a perfect situation. The stars aligned for Mathews and he will not disappoint.
2010 Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year – Michael Turner, RB, ATL
Many fantasy owners were cursing him last season as a result of his ankle injury. Turner looks healthy again and will return to being a top 5 RB.
The Year’s Biggest Drop – Vincent Jackson, WR, SD
(Player who will experience the biggest drop in Dynasty Value going into next season)
Jackson may not even make it on the field this season, though I think at some point he will be back. Fact is, he will have missed too much time, won’t be in football shape, and the chemistry between Rivers, Floyd and Naanee will have already formed. My Bold Prediction: Jackson won’t even be a top 30 WR this season, and will plummet down draft boards next year as a result.
The Year’s Biggest Rise – Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, NYG
(Player who will experience the biggest rise in Dynasty Value going into next season)
Just missed: Arian Foster, RB, HOU
He’ll take over the starting role for the Giants, as Jacobs is relegated to short yardage duties. Jacobs will steal some TDs, but the real long term value play is Bradshaw.
2011 First Rounder – Miles Austin, WR, DAL
(Player who will be in NEXT year’s top 12 in dynasty drafts, who wasn’t this year)
Austin is the real deal on a terrific offense.
Old News – Larry Fitzgerald, WR, ARI
(Player who will not be in NEXT year’s top 12 in dynasty drafts, who likely was this year)
The loss of Warner and Boldin will seriously hurt Fitz’s value. No Cardinal quarterback holds a candle to Kurt Warner, and this team will be running more in 2010 as a result.
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Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
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